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DePaul at Northwestern

Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena. DePaul our rank 81 · 3-0; Northwestern our rank 69 · 3-0.

Who will win DePaul vs Northwestern?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Northwestern a 68% chance to beat DePaul, with a projected score of Northwestern 74, DePaul 68. The spread is DePaul −1.5, with an over/under of 139.5. The model makes it Northwestern by 5.4, 6.9 points toward Northwestern, and projects 142 total points.

To winNorthwestern 68%DePaul 31%
Projected score68–74DePaul, then Northwestern
Margin5.4Northwestern · line: DePaul 1.5
Total142.0line: 139.5
First half32–35Northwestern ahead 60%
DePaul by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Northwestern by 40Model: Northwestern by 5.4Line: DePaul by 1.5DePaul by 20Evenby 20Northwestern by 40Model: Northwestern by 5.4Line: DePaul by 1.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Northwestern
KarasinskiF · 25 min18.03.61.020+ 38%
PrattG · 34 min16.73.52.715+ 59%
WestG · 34 min15.32.15.815+ 51%
CiaravinoG · 35 min10.36.31.710+ 50%
DePaul
CottonG · 24 min11.04.31.310+ 55%
PopoolaG · 31 min10.73.70.910+ 53%
HolmesG · 22 min10.13.41.410+ 49%
BlockerG · 28 min9.82.72.710+ 47%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Angelo Ciaravino: DePaul 42%Northwestern 58%

The white mark is the call with him: Northwestern 68%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsNorthwestern without himChangeProjected score
Northwestern
Angelo Ciaravino3.258%−1070–72
Jake West2.760%−870–72
Okku Federiko1.962%−669–73
LA Pratt1.464%−469–73
DePaul
Koree Cotton2.175%+767–75
Ade Popoola2.175%+767–75
Magoon Gwath1.974%+667–75
Fabian Flores1.674%+667–75

Change is in Northwestern's win chance, in points. Scores read DePaul, then Northwestern. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineDePaul −1.5139.5
ModelNorthwestern −5.4142.0
Gap6.9 toward Northwestern2.5 higher

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    DePaul 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 9W 84-47vs Alabama A&MCovered −23.5 · Under 139.5
    2. Nov 5W 82-80vs South FloridaDidn't cover −6.5 · Over 149.5
    3. Nov 2W 75-58vs West Georgia
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 80.3 and allowing 61.7
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Northwestern 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 9W 72-55vs Boston UCovered −13.5 · Under 143.5
    2. Nov 6W 78-65vs Stony BrookCovered −12.5 · Under 144.5
    3. Nov 2W 86-60vs Binghamton
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 60.0
    Against the spread, this season
    2–0
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    DePaulNorthwestern
    Points scored per 100 possessions108.2 108th112.9 68th
    Points allowed per 10098.8 43rd101.2 73rd
    Possessions a game70.2 245th68.8 344th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)50.1% 215th51.8% 92nd
    Opponents' shooting49.6% 118th50.4% 182nd
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.2% 201st16.6% 38th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.7% 253rd30.8% 251st
    Free throws per shot0.27 125th0.26 191st

    The widest gap: Northwestern's defense (73rd) against DePaul's offense (108th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    DePaul 32, Northwestern 35
    First-half margin
    Northwestern by 2.9
    First-half points, both teams
    66.6
    Projected second half
    DePaul 36, Northwestern 39
    Second-half points, both teams
    75.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    DePaul, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 31.0 allowed
    Northwestern, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 29.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    DePaul

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Ade PopoolaG3110.73.70.92.8
    10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 49%
    Layden BlockerG289.82.72.71.1
    10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 49%
    Noah MeeusenG287.83.33.61.2
    45% to play · 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 47%
    Kruz McClureG276.72.52.01.4
    5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57%
    Koree CottonG2411.04.31.31.4
    10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 39%
    Fabian FloresC226.55.70.70.1
    5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 18%
    Kahmare HolmesG2210.13.41.40.9
    10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 56%
    Magoon GwathF199.03.60.70.9
    10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 55%

    Missed the last game: Noah Meeusen (32 min a game).

    Northwestern

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Angelo CiaravinoG3510.36.31.70.7
    10+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 47%
    LA PrattG3416.73.52.71.8
    15+ pts 59% · 3+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 50%
    Jake WestG3415.32.15.81.9
    15+ pts 51% · 6+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 52%
    Okku FederikoF286.24.61.70.3
    5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48%
    Jack KarasinskiF2518.03.61.02.5
    25% to play · 20+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ threes 43%
    Phoenix GillG206.62.80.90.8
    5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52%
    Colin SmithF195.52.20.81.0
    5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 57%
    Ryan SoulisF143.53.30.90.1
    5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 24%

    Missed the last game: Jack Karasinski (28 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 6:30 PMprojected 74-77Pitt at Butler, men's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    3. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    DePaul next: vs MD Eastern, Tue, Nov 17 · 98%Northwestern next: vs Columbia, Mon, Nov 16 · 92%DePaul: schedule and oddsNorthwestern: schedule and odds