Columbia at Northwestern
Monday, November 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Columbia our rank 191 · 2-1; Northwestern our rank 69 · 3-0.
Who will win Columbia vs Northwestern?
The model gives Northwestern a 92% chance to beat Columbia, with a projected score of Northwestern 81, Columbia 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | |||||
| KarasinskiF · 24 min | 18.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 20+ 43% | |
| PrattG · 33 min | 17.4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 15+ 63% | |
| WestG · 32 min | 16.0 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 15+ 55% | |
| CiaravinoG · 33 min | 10.7 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| Columbia | |||||
| O'KeefeG · 23 min | 11.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| IgoeF · 26 min | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 10+ 42% | |
| PrattG · 21 min | 7.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 5+ 69% | |
| SandersG · 23 min | 6.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Angelo Ciaravino: Columbia 13%Northwestern 87%
The white mark is the call with him: Northwestern 92%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Northwestern without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | ||||
| Angelo Ciaravino | 3.2 | 87% | −5 | 67–80 |
| Jake West | 2.7 | 88% | −4 | 67–80 |
| Okku Federiko | 1.9 | 89% | −3 | 67–80 |
| LA Pratt | 1.4 | 90% | −2 | 66–81 |
| Columbia | ||||
| Connor Igoe | 1.1 | 93% | +1 | 65–82 |
Change is in Northwestern's win chance, in points. Scores read Columbia, then Northwestern. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Columbia 2-1LWW
- Nov 9W 75-55vs StonehillCovered −13.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 5W 120-58vs SUNY Old Westbury
- Nov 2L 71-84vs Elon
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 88.7 and allowing 65.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Northwestern 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 72-55vs Boston UCovered −13.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 6W 78-65vs Stony BrookCovered −12.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2W 86-60vs Binghamton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 60.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Columbia | Northwestern | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.1 181st | 112.9 68th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.4 238th | 101.2 73rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 68.8 344th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 286th | 51.8% 92nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 319th | 50.4% 182nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 180th | 16.6% 38th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 61st | 30.8% 251st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 319th | 0.26 191st |
The widest gap: Northwestern's offense (68th) against Columbia's defense (238th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Columbia 30, Northwestern 39
- First-half margin
- Northwestern by 8.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.0
- Projected second half
- Columbia 35, Northwestern 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Columbia, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Northwestern, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Columbia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor IgoeF | 26 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Mason RitterF | 25 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Gerard O'KeefeG | 23 | 11.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Hampton SandersG | 23 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Michael MaduemeG | 22 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Josh PrattG | 21 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Douglas LangfordF | 17 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 53% | |||||
| Gabe HornbergerG | 14 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Northwestern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo CiaravinoG | 33 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| LA PrattG | 33 | 17.4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jake WestG | 32 | 16.0 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 7+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Okku FederikoF | 27 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jack KarasinskiF | 24 | 18.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| 25% to play · 20+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 45% | |||||
| Phoenix GillG | 20 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Colin SmithF | 19 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Ryan SoulisF | 14 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jack Karasinski (28 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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