St Thomas at Long Island
Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Brooklyn Athletic Center. St Thomas our rank 171 · 2-2; Long Island our rank 268 · 0-4.
Who will win St Thomas vs Long Island?
The model gives St. Thomas a 59% chance to beat Long Island University, with a projected score of St Thomas 75, Long Island 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Thomas | |||||
| TibbitsG · 29 min | 11.7 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 10+ 60% | |
| FranksG · 26 min | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 50% | |
| LorenzF · 25 min | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 45% | |
| BjerkeF · 25 min | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 36% | |
| Long Island | |||||
| AlletteG · 33 min | 12.7 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| DavisG · 32 min | 12.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 15+ 34% | |
| JohnsonF · 22 min | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| BowlesF · 27 min | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kendall Blue: St Thomas 56%Long Island 44%
The white mark is the call with him: St Thomas 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Thomas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Thomas | ||||
| Kendall Blue | 0.8 | 56% | −3 | 74–73 |
| Carter Bjerke | 0.5 | 57% | −2 | 74–72 |
| Jeremy Lorenz | 0.5 | 57% | −2 | 74–72 |
| Long Island | ||||
| Vasean Allette | 1.0 | 62% | +3 | 75–72 |
Change is in St Thomas's win chance, in points. Scores read St Thomas, then Long Island. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
St Thomas 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 119-82vs Macalester
- Nov 8L 67-76vs Green BayDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 6L 62-76at MinnesotaCovered +14.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 87-78at Presbyterian
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 83.8 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Long Island 0-4LLLL
- Nov 9L 46-66at TowsonDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 7L 80-88at La SalleDidn't cover +4.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 5L 60-67at Seton HallCovered +17.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 2L 60-74at FAU
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 61.5 and allowing 73.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Thomas | Long Island | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.3 138th | 95.4 333rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.6 245th | 106.7 143rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.1% 137th | 48.0% 335th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 69th | 48.4% 43rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 90th | 19.0% 285th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.9% 353rd | 29.7% 297th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 20th | 0.26 166th |
The widest gap: St Thomas's defense (245th) against Long Island's offense (333rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Thomas 35, Long Island 34
- First-half margin
- St Thomas by 1.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Projected second half
- St Thomas 40, Long Island 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Thomas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 37.8 allowed
- Long Island, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden TibbitsG | 29 | 11.7 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Tim FranksG | 26 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Carter BjerkeF | 25 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jeremy LorenzF | 25 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jonovan WilkinsonG | 22 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Caden WilkinsF | 17 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Austin HerroG | 16 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Kendall BlueG | 13 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Austin Herro (20 min a game).
Long Island
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasean AlletteG | 33 | 12.7 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Daquan DavisG | 32 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Tyrell BowlesF | 27 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Justin JohnsonF | 22 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ryan BewleyF | 20 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Josh PickettG | 19 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Joshua SkinnerG | 17 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Max Ndlovu-FraserG | 12 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 67% to play · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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