St Thomas 87, Presbyterian 78
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Templeton Center. St Thomas our rank 171 · 2-2; Presbyterian our rank 229 · 0-3.
Who won St Thomas vs Presbyterian?
Final: St. Thomas 87, Presbyterian 78. Before tip-off the model gave St. Thomas a 48% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 0.6 points for Presbyterian. Tim Franks scored 24 for St Thomas; Triston Wilson had 19 for Presbyterian.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jaylen Peterson: St Thomas 51%Presbyterian 49%
The white mark is the call with him: Presbyterian 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Presbyterian without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presbyterian | ||||
| Jaylen Peterson | 0.9 | 49% | −3 | 68–68 |
| St Thomas | ||||
| Kendall Blue | 0.8 | 56% | +4 | 67–69 |
| Carter Bjerke | 0.5 | 55% | +3 | 67–68 |
| Jeremy Lorenz | 0.5 | 55% | +3 | 67–68 |
Change is in Presbyterian's win chance, in points. Scores read St Thomas, then Presbyterian. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
St Thomas
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Presbyterian
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Thomas | Presbyterian | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.3 138th | 105.9 144th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.6 245th | 114.0 323rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 69.5 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.1% 137th | 50.3% 204th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 69th | 53.3% 338th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 90th | 17.8% 144th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.9% 353rd | 31.6% 190th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 20th | 0.30 36th |
The widest gap: St Thomas's offense (138th) against Presbyterian's defense (323rd), of 365 teams.
First half
St Thomas led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 10.3.
- At halftime
- St Thomas 38, Presbyterian 36
- Projected halftime score
- St Thomas 32, Presbyterian 32
- First-half margin
- Presbyterian by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy LorenzF | 30 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Austin HerroG | 28 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Hayden TibbitsG | 27 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Carter BjerkeF | 26 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Tim FranksG | 26 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| Jonovan WilkinsonG | 23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Caden WilkinsF | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Julius WadeG | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle CountsF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Presbyterian
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triston WilsonG | 37 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Jaylen PetersonF | 32 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Carl ParrishG | 28 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Iverson KingG | 26 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| EJ SmithG | 25 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Erik TaylorG | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chidi ChiakweluF | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalon HudsonG | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |