Who won Miami vs Florida?
Final: Florida 77, Miami 67. Before tip-off the model gave Florida a 87% chance to win, with a projected margin of 13.8 points for Florida. Thomas Haugh scored 19 for Florida; Acaden Lewis had 24 for Miami.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Thomas Haugh: Miami 26%Florida 74%
The white mark is the call with him: Florida 87%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Florida without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida | ||||
| Thomas Haugh | 5.8 | 74% | −13 | 68–76 |
| Rueben Chinyelu | 5.3 | 76% | −11 | 68–76 |
| Alex Condon | 5.2 | 76% | −11 | 68–76 |
| Boogie Fland | 4.3 | 78% | −9 | 67–77 |
 Miami | ||||
| Acaden Lewis | 3.8 | 92% | +5 | 63–81 |
| Malik Reneau | 3.5 | 92% | +5 | 63–81 |
| Somto Cyril | 3.4 | 92% | +5 | 64–81 |
| Shelton Henderson | 3.4 | 92% | +5 | 64–81 |
Change is in Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read Miami, then Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Miami
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Florida
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Miami | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 115.0 51st | 123.0 3rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.9 17th | 90.0 5th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.0% 287th | 52.3% 70th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.5% 47th | 46.9% 14th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 155th | 18.6% 251st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 97th | 36.0% 9th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 285th | 0.32 15th |
The widest gap: Florida's defense (5th) against Miami's offense (51st), of 365 teams.
First half
Florida led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 14.3.
- At halftime
- Miami 36, Florida 46
- Projected halftime score
- Miami 30, Florida 38
- First-half margin
- Florida by 7.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acaden LewisG | 36 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Shelton HendersonF | 32 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Somto CyrilC | 28 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Malik ReneauF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Dante AllenG | 22 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Miller IIIF | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb GaskinsF | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent BlandG | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick DornG | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas HaughF | 38 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Boogie FlandG | 33 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Denzel AberdeenG | 30 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Rueben ChinyeluC | 29 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| Alex CondonF | 26 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Urban KlavzarG | 19 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Isaiah BrownG | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Domen PetrovicF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Arturas ButajevasF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |