North Alabama at Miami
Friday, November 13, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Watsco Center. North Alabama our rank 264 · 2-1; Miami AP 17, our rank 31 · 2-1.
Who will win North Alabama vs Miami?
The model gives Miami a 99% chance to beat North Alabama, with a projected score of Miami 88, North Alabama 59. The spread is Miami −34.5, with an over/under of 151.5. The model makes it Miami by 28.6, 5.9 points toward North Alabama, and projects 147 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | |||||
| ReneauF · 22 min | 13.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 42% | |
| HendersonF · 27 min | 13.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 15+ 39% | |
| LewisG · 29 min | 10.9 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 10+ 55% | |
| CyrilC · 22 min | 10.6 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| North Alabama | |||||
| EvbagharuG · 27 min | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 15+ 34% | |
| HarrisG · 22 min | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 5+ 68% | |
| LaxG · 19 min | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5+ 58% | |
| CarterF · 23 min | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Acaden Lewis: North Alabama 1%Miami 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Miami 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Miami without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | ||||
| Acaden Lewis | 3.8 | 99% | 0 | 61–86 |
| Malik Reneau | 3.5 | 99% | 0 | 61–86 |
| Somto Cyril | 3.4 | 99% | 0 | 61–86 |
| Shelton Henderson | 3.4 | 99% | 0 | 61–86 |
Change is in Miami's win chance, in points. Scores read North Alabama, then Miami. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Miami −34.5 | 151.5 |
| Model | Miami −28.6 | 147.1 |
| Gap | 5.9 toward North Alabama | 4.4 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
North Alabama 2-1WWL
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 75.7 and allowing 74.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Alabama | Miami | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.8 251st | 115.0 51st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.8 285th | 93.9 17th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 31st | 49.0% 287th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.7% 129th | 48.5% 47th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 272nd | 17.8% 155th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 286th | 33.1% 97th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 63rd | 0.24 285th |
The widest gap: Miami's defense (17th) against North Alabama's offense (251st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- North Alabama 27, Miami 42
- First-half margin
- Miami by 15.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.0
- Projected second half
- North Alabama 33, Miami 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- North Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 36.3 scored, 40.0 allowed
- Miami, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
North Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvbagharuG | 27 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Drey CarterF | 23 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Caden HarrisG | 22 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Cortez Graham-HowardG | 22 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jarron TalleyG | 20 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Quan LaxG | 19 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Damarien YatesF | 18 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jacobe WhittedF | 17 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acaden LewisG | 29 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 42% · 6+ ast 43% | |||||
| Shelton HendersonF | 27 | 13.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Malik ReneauF | 22 | 13.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Caleb GaskinsF | 22 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Somto CyrilC | 22 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Dante AllenG | 19 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Nick DornG | 16 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Brent BlandG | 15 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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