North Alabama 79, UC Davis 75
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Center. North Alabama our rank 264 · 2-1; UC Davis our rank 224 · 2-1.
Who won North Alabama vs UC Davis?
Final: North Alabama 79, UC Davis 75. Before tip-off the model gave North Alabama a 15% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 12.8 points for UC Davis. Quan Lax scored 19 for North Alabama; Jalen Stokes had 18 for UC Davis.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Clarence Massamba: North Alabama 16%UC Davis 84%
The white mark is the call with him: UC Davis 85%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UC Davis without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | ||||
| Clarence Massamba | 0.8 | 84% | −1 | 61–73 |
| Brayden Fagbemi | 0.8 | 84% | −1 | 61–73 |
Change is in UC Davis's win chance, in points. Scores read North Alabama, then UC Davis. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
North Alabama
No games yet this season: this is its first.
UC Davis
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Alabama | UC Davis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.8 251st | 99.6 280th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.8 285th | 107.4 161st |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 72.2 55th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 31st | 49.6% 243rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.7% 129th | 52.2% 299th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 272nd | 19.4% 310th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 286th | 29.4% 312th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 63rd | 0.29 56th |
The widest gap: UC Davis's defense (161st) against North Alabama's offense (251st), of 365 teams.
First half
UC Davis led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 18.3.
- At halftime
- North Alabama 36, UC Davis 45
- Projected halftime score
- North Alabama 28, UC Davis 35
- First-half margin
- UC Davis by 7.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
North Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvbagharuG | 30 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Caden HarrisG | 26 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| Drey CarterF | 25 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jarron TalleyG | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cortez Graham-HowardG | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan LaxG | 20 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Ansar OsmanF | 15 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Damarien YatesF | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacobe WhittedF | 14 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
UC Davis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah ChappellF | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Brayden FagbemiG | 29 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Connor SevillaG | 29 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jalen StokesG | 28 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Veniamin AbosiF | 22 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Omer SuljanovicF | 17 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Clarence MassambaG | 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Ylan Esso-EssisG | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase RawlinsG | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |