UC Davis at Sacramento St
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Hornet Pavilion. UC Davis our rank 224 · 2-1; Sacramento St our rank 227 · 1-1.
Who will win UC Davis vs Sacramento St?
The model gives Sacramento State a 59% chance to beat UC Davis, with a projected score of Sacramento St 77, UC Davis 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento St | |||||
| Hughes IIG · 31 min | 16.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 15+ 59% | |
| WilliamsG · 32 min | 16.0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 15+ 55% | |
| WilsonG · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| GradyF · 28 min | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 49% | |
| UC Davis | |||||
| SevillaG · 29 min | 12.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 63% | |
| FagbemiG · 32 min | 10.8 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 10+ 54% | |
| StokesG · 25 min | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| AbosiF · 20 min | 9.0 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Marcus Wilson: UC Davis 44%Sacramento St 56%
The white mark is the call with him: Sacramento St 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Sacramento St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento St | ||||
| Marcus Wilson | 0.8 | 56% | −3 | 75–77 |
| Larry Hughes II | 0.8 | 56% | −3 | 75–77 |
| UC Davis | ||||
| Clarence Massamba | 0.8 | 62% | +3 | 74–77 |
| Brayden Fagbemi | 0.8 | 62% | +3 | 74–77 |
Change is in Sacramento St's win chance, in points. Scores read UC Davis, then Sacramento St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UC Davis 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 81-69vs Incarnate WordCovered −11.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 5W 65-52vs Menlo
- Nov 2L 75-79vs North Alabama
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 73.7 and allowing 66.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Sacramento St 1-1WL
- Nov 7L 77-83at Santa ClaraCovered +19.5 · Under 170.5
- Nov 2W 90-74vs Jessup
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 83.5 and allowing 78.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UC Davis | Sacramento St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.6 280th | 99.9 273rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.4 161st | 107.9 171st |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 55th | 73.4 12th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.6% 243rd | 50.8% 154th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.2% 299th | 48.9% 65th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.4% 310th | 17.6% 126th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 312th | 29.1% 321st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 56th | 0.28 99th |
The widest gap: UC Davis's defense (161st) against Sacramento St's offense (273rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UC Davis 35, Sacramento St 36
- First-half margin
- Sacramento St by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Projected second half
- UC Davis 40, Sacramento St 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UC Davis, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
- Sacramento St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 43.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UC Davis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden FagbemiG | 32 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Connor SevillaG | 29 | 12.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Isaiah ChappellF | 27 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jalen StokesG | 25 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Veniamin AbosiF | 20 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Omer SuljanovicF | 18 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Clarence MassambaG | 17 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ylan Esso-EssisG | 13 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Sacramento St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikey WilliamsG | 32 | 16.0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 54% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Larry Hughes IIG | 31 | 16.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Osiris GradyF | 28 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Marcus WilsonG | 25 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Taj GloverG | 18 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Sasa CianiF | 14 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Chidi NwigweG | 10 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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