Lipscomb at W Carolina
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Ramsey Center. Lipscomb our rank 151 · 2-2; W Carolina our rank 183 · 2-1.
Who will win Lipscomb vs W Carolina?
The model gives Western Carolina a 52% chance to beat Lipscomb, with a projected score of W Carolina 78, Lipscomb 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Carolina | |||||
| RobertsG · 23 min | 13.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 15+ 40% | |
| PruntyG · 23 min | 11.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| BrownG · 24 min | 10.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 10+ 51% | |
| ManningG · 18 min | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| Lipscomb | |||||
| SimpkinsG · 34 min | 17.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 15+ 62% | |
| MartinF · 24 min | 14.6 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 15+ 46% | |
| SargiunasF · 30 min | 12.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 15+ 36% | |
| EsmeraldoG · 34 min | 10.9 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 10+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaeden Roberts: Lipscomb 52%W Carolina 48%
The white mark is the call with him: W Carolina 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | W Carolina without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Carolina | ||||
| Jaeden Roberts | 1.0 | 48% | −4 | 78–77 |
| Samuel Dada | 0.9 | 49% | −3 | 78–77 |
| Isaiah Manning | 0.8 | 49% | −3 | 78–77 |
| Travelle Bryson | 0.6 | 50% | −2 | 77–77 |
| Lipscomb | ||||
| Takai Simpkins | 1.5 | 58% | +6 | 76–78 |
| Mateo Esmeraldo | 1.3 | 57% | +5 | 77–78 |
| Devyn Martin | 0.5 | 54% | +2 | 77–78 |
Change is in W Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Lipscomb, then W Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lipscomb 2-2LLWW
- Nov 10W 88-75vs BelmontCovered +3.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 7W 78-77vs SIUEDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 3L 54-76at Iowa
- Nov 2L 79-86at SE Missouri
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 74.8 and allowing 78.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
W Carolina 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 136-68vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 7W 83-75at UNC AshevilleCovered −3.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 2L 72-80at North Carolina
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 97.0 and allowing 74.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lipscomb | W Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.3 155th | 104.7 168th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.1 173rd | 110.2 233rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 73rd | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 168th | 50.8% 159th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.0% 220th | 49.2% 81st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 206th | 16.2% 15th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.6% 333rd | 32.1% 158th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 111th | 0.33 4th |
The widest gap: Lipscomb's offense (155th) against W Carolina's defense (233rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lipscomb 36, W Carolina 36
- First-half margin
- W Carolina by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.7
- Projected second half
- Lipscomb 41, W Carolina 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lipscomb, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.2 scored, 36.2 allowed
- W Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lipscomb
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo EsmeraldoG | 34 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 54% · 6+ ast 47% | |||||
| Takai SimpkinsG | 34 | 17.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Titas SargiunasF | 30 | 12.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Devyn MartinF | 24 | 14.6 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Hugo TidareG | 19 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kennedy OkparaF | 18 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Truman ByrneF | 16 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Josh ScottF | 13 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
W Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi BrownG | 24 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jaxon PruntyG | 23 | 11.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jaeden RobertsG | 23 | 13.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Isaiah ManningG | 18 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Samuel DadaF | 18 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Jacob ZhuG | 17 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Travelle BrysonG | 15 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tayeshaun SmithF | 14 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…