Colorado at Providence
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Colorado our rank 83 · 2-1; Providence our rank 65 · 2-1.
Who will win Colorado vs Providence?
The model gives Providence a 69% chance to beat Colorado, with a projected score of Providence 78, Colorado 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | |||||
| VanterpoolG · 25 min | 14.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 15+ 43% | |
| MackG · 30 min | 13.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 15+ 38% | |
| ByrdG · 28 min | 9.9 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 10+ 48% | |
| MelaG · 22 min | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 42% | |
| Colorado | |||||
| HargressG · 34 min | 16.9 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 15+ 60% | |
| InmanG · 27 min | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 54% | |
| SandersG · 27 min | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 42% | |
| NeelyF · 19 min | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Miles Byrd: Colorado 42%Providence 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Providence 69%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Providence without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | ||||
| Miles Byrd | 3.3 | 58% | −11 | 74–76 |
| Devin Vanterpool | 2.6 | 60% | −9 | 73–76 |
| Malik Mack | 2.3 | 62% | −7 | 73–76 |
| Gavin Hightower | 2.2 | 62% | −7 | 73–76 |
| Colorado | ||||
| Barrington Hargress | 3.2 | 78% | +9 | 70–79 |
| Noah Feddersen | 2.4 | 76% | +7 | 71–79 |
| Justin Neely | 1.9 | 75% | +6 | 71–78 |
| Josiah Sanders | 1.7 | 74% | +5 | 71–78 |
Change is in Providence's win chance, in points. Scores read Colorado, then Providence. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Colorado 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 83-75vs San DiegoDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 7L 66-77vs San Diego StDidn't cover +3.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 94-59vs Abilene Chrstn
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.0 and allowing 70.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Colorado | Providence | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.2 99th | 110.1 89th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.9 56th | 97.6 37th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 71st | 49.3% 270th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.7% 195th | 50.3% 168th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 260th | 19.1% 290th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.6% 334th | 33.8% 67th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 171st | 0.22 351st |
The widest gap: Providence's defense (37th) against Colorado's offense (99th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Colorado 34, Providence 37
- First-half margin
- Providence by 3.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.2
- Projected second half
- Colorado 38, Providence 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Colorado, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 35.3 allowed
- Providence, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 32.3 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrington HargressG | 34 | 16.9 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 4+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Noah FeddersenC | 29 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Josiah SandersG | 27 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Ian InmanG | 27 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ threes 42% | |||||
| Alex DickesonG | 27 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jalin HollandG | 21 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Justin NeelyF | 19 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Goc MalualF | 11 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
Providence
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik MackG | 30 | 13.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Gavin HightowerG | 29 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Miles ByrdG | 28 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jacob BannarbieF | 26 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Devin VanterpoolG | 25 | 14.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Ryan MelaG | 22 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Leonardo MarangonF | 19 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Elijah SaundersF | 15 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ryan Mela (24 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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