Who will win Portland vs Colorado?
The model gives Colorado a 93% chance to beat Portland, with a projected score of Colorado 85, Portland 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Colorado | |||||
| HargressG · 32 min | 18.6 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 20+ 42% | |
| InmanG · 26 min | 12.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 63% | |
| NeelyF · 19 min | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 10+ 52% | |
| SandersG · 26 min | 10.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 49% | |
 Portland | |||||
| O'DonnellF · 29 min | 15.9 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 15+ 54% | |
| OlveraG · 26 min | 10.8 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 10+ 54% | |
| GeorgeF · 20 min | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 53% | |
| ParkerG · 25 min | 9.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 10+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Barrington Hargress: Portland 12%Colorado 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Colorado 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Colorado without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | ||||
| Barrington Hargress | 3.2 | 88% | −5 | 70–83 |
| Noah Feddersen | 2.4 | 90% | −3 | 70–84 |
| Justin Neely | 1.9 | 90% | −3 | 69–84 |
| Josiah Sanders | 1.7 | 91% | −2 | 69–84 |
| Portland | ||||
| Timo George | 1.0 | 94% | +1 | 68–86 |
| Hunter Adam | 0.8 | 94% | +1 | 68–85 |
| James O'Donnell | 0.8 | 94% | +1 | 68–85 |
Change is in Colorado's win chance, in points. Scores read Portland, then Colorado. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Portland 3-1WLWW
- Nov 9W 73-66at Hawai'iCovered +8.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 8W 130-56vs Bethesda
- Nov 6L 85-89vs UT ArlingtonDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 2W 133-89vs Willamette
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 105.2 and allowing 75.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Colorado 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 83-75vs San DiegoDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 7L 66-77vs San Diego StDidn't cover +3.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 94-59vs Abilene Chrstn
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.0 and allowing 70.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Portland | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.6 190th | 109.2 99th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.5 241st | 99.9 56th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 71.7 87th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.1% 15th | 52.3% 71st |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 165th | 50.7% 195th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.5% 319th | 18.7% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 322nd | 28.6% 334th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 38th | 0.26 171st |
The widest gap: Colorado's offense (99th) against Portland's defense (241st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Portland 31, Colorado 41
- First-half margin
- Colorado by 9.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Projected second half
- Portland 37, Colorado 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Portland, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 53.8 scored, 35.5 allowed
- Colorado, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Portland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James O'DonnellF | 29 | 15.9 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 8+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Hunter AdamG | 29 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jaxon OlveraG | 26 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Riley ParkerG | 25 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Timo GeorgeF | 20 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Dante Censori-HerculesG | 20 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| RJ Nance Jr.G | 18 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Kaia IsaacG | 17 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrington HargressG | 32 | 18.6 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 |
| 20+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 41% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| Noah FeddersenC | 28 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Josiah SandersG | 26 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ian InmanG | 26 | 12.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 46% | |||||
| Alex DickesonG | 26 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Jalin HollandG | 20 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Justin NeelyF | 19 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Goc MalualF | 12 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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