Abilene Chrstn 59, Colorado 94
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at CU Events Center. Abilene Chrstn our rank 275 · 1-2; Colorado our rank 83 · 2-1.
Who won Abilene Chrstn vs Colorado?
Final: Colorado 94, Abilene Christian 59. Before tip-off the model gave Colorado a 95% chance to win, with a projected margin of 20.6 points for Colorado. Jalin Holland scored 18 for Colorado; Timéo Pons had 13 for Abilene Chrstn.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Barrington Hargress: Abilene Chrstn 8%Colorado 92%
The white mark is the call with him: Colorado 95%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Colorado without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | ||||
| Barrington Hargress | 3.2 | 92% | −3 | 60–77 |
| Noah Feddersen | 2.4 | 93% | −2 | 59–78 |
| Justin Neely | 1.9 | 94% | −1 | 59–78 |
| Josiah Sanders | 1.7 | 94% | −1 | 59–78 |
| Abilene Chrstn | ||||
| Timéo Pons | 0.7 | 96% | +1 | 58–79 |
Change is in Colorado's win chance, in points. Scores read Abilene Chrstn, then Colorado. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Abilene Chrstn
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Colorado
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Abilene Chrstn | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.3 240th | 109.2 99th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.0 314th | 99.9 56th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 71.7 87th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 251st | 52.3% 71st |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.5% 357th | 50.7% 195th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 225th | 18.7% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 220th | 28.6% 334th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 206th | 0.26 171st |
The widest gap: Colorado's offense (99th) against Abilene Chrstn's defense (314th), of 365 teams.
First half
Colorado led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 9.3 points and the total by 5.6.
- At halftime
- Abilene Chrstn 34, Colorado 36
- Projected halftime score
- Abilene Chrstn 27, Colorado 38
- First-half margin
- Colorado by 11.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Abilene Chrstn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaniel RiveraG | 32 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Isaac DyeG | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan BoisdurG | 26 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Timéo PonsG | 25 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Willan Marie-AnaisF | 22 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Victor Yimga MoukouriF | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Xabi LopezG | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew HaffnerG | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Armani TheusG | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah SandersG | 27 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian InmanG | 27 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Alex DickesonG | 27 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Barrington HargressG | 26 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Noah FeddersenC | 23 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalin HollandG | 20 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| Goc MalualF | 16 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin NeelyF | 16 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| David GomezF | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |