Abilene Chrstn at Missouri St
Monday, November 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Great Southern Bank Arena. Abilene Chrstn our rank 275 · 1-2; Missouri St our rank 238 · 3-0.
Who will win Abilene Chrstn vs Missouri St?
The model gives Missouri State a 66% chance to beat Abilene Christian, with a projected score of Missouri St 77, Abilene Chrstn 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri St | |||||
| AcimovicC · 26 min | 14.4 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 15+ 46% | |
| Williams Jr.G · 32 min | 13.0 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 15+ 37% | |
| CunninghamG · 23 min | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 36% | |
| RoweG · 20 min | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 10+ 32% | |
| Abilene Chrstn | |||||
| Marie-AnaisF · 27 min | 11.2 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| DyeG · 30 min | 10.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| PonsG · 26 min | 9.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| BoisdurG · 27 min | 9.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Timéo Pons: Abilene Chrstn 32%Missouri St 68%
The white mark is the call with him: Missouri St 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Missouri St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene Chrstn | ||||
| Timéo Pons | 0.7 | 68% | +2 | 71–77 |
Change is in Missouri St's win chance, in points. Scores read Abilene Chrstn, then Missouri St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Abilene Chrstn 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 71-76vs SF AustinCovered +6.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 7W 83-81vs LamarCovered +1.5 · Under 167.5
- Nov 2L 59-94at Colorado
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 71.0 and allowing 83.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Missouri St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 89-62vs Newman
- Nov 6W 79-62vs Truman State
- Nov 3W 88-60vs Lincoln (MO)
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.3 and allowing 61.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Abilene Chrstn | Missouri St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.3 240th | 100.7 252nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.0 314th | 109.8 221st |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 251st | 50.5% 182nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.5% 357th | 50.5% 188th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 225th | 18.1% 194th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 220th | 31.7% 184th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 206th | 0.26 164th |
The widest gap: Missouri St's offense (252nd) against Abilene Chrstn's defense (314th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Abilene Chrstn 34, Missouri St 36
- First-half margin
- Missouri St by 2.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- Abilene Chrstn 38, Missouri St 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Abilene Chrstn, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Missouri St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Abilene Chrstn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac DyeG | 30 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Yaniel RiveraG | 29 | 9.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Evan BoisdurG | 27 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Willan Marie-AnaisF | 27 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Timéo PonsG | 26 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Xabi LopezG | 17 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Victor Yimga MoukouriF | 16 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Drew HaffnerG | 15 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missouri St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Williams Jr.G | 32 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Andrej AcimovicC | 26 | 14.4 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jordan BlairG | 25 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Melakih CunninghamG | 23 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Dylan RoweG | 20 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Christian ThompsonF | 19 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Matt GrayF | 17 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Ngundeng RueyF | 16 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…