Portland St at Saint Mary's
Monday, November 16, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Pavilion. Portland St our rank 232 · 1-2; Saint Mary's our rank 62 · 2-1.
Who will win Portland St vs Saint Mary's?
The model gives Saint Mary's a 96% chance to beat Portland State, with a projected score of Saint Mary's 86, Portland St 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's | |||||
| DentG · 34 min | 17.3 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 15+ 62% | |
| JuzenasG · 31 min | 14.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 15+ 46% | |
| Dent-SmithG · 24 min | 11.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 10+ 60% | |
| ZougrisF · 22 min | 9.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 10+ 42% | |
| Portland St | |||||
| RandolphF · 28 min | 12.5 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 65% | |
| NikonovG · 25 min | 11.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 10+ 56% | |
| IbekweC · 18 min | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 5+ 66% | |
| KearneyF · 19 min | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Joshua Dent: Portland St 8%Saint Mary's 92%
The white mark is the call with him: Saint Mary's 96%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Saint Mary's without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's | ||||
| Joshua Dent | 4.0 | 92% | −4 | 68–84 |
| Mantas Juzenas | 3.0 | 94% | −2 | 67–84 |
| Vangelis Zougris | 2.3 | 94% | −2 | 67–85 |
| Thomas Ndong | 2.1 | 95% | −1 | 67–85 |
| Portland St | ||||
| Luke Kearney | 0.7 | 97% | +1 | 65–86 |
Change is in Saint Mary's's win chance, in points. Scores read Portland St, then Saint Mary's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Portland St 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 71-87at Colorado StCovered +16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 7L 60-79at Seattle UDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 3W 111-59vs Lewis & Clark
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 80.7 and allowing 75.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Saint Mary's 2-1WWL
- Nov 8L 95-96vs NevadaCovered +1.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 4W 105-64vs N Dakota StCovered −13.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 2W 90-85vs Illinois St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 96.7 and allowing 81.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Portland St | Saint Mary's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.8 230th | 115.0 53rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.1 228th | 101.5 76th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 290th | 54.2% 13th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.0% 282nd | 52.8% 325th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 237th | 16.0% 11th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 73rd | 30.3% 270th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 118th | 0.22 342nd |
The widest gap: Saint Mary's's offense (53rd) against Portland St's defense (228th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Portland St 30, Saint Mary's 41
- First-half margin
- Saint Mary's by 11.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Portland St 36, Saint Mary's 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Portland St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Saint Mary's, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Portland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquay RandolphF | 28 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 8+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Yaroslav NikonovG | 25 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Gantas KrianauskasG | 20 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Emil SkyttG | 20 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Luke KearneyF | 19 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| KC IbekweC | 18 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
| Trevor FrankG | 18 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Dennis Johnson IIIG | 17 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Saint Mary's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua DentG | 34 | 17.3 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 43% · 6+ ast 44% | |||||
| Mantas JuzenasG | 31 | 14.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 8+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jeremy Dent-SmithG | 24 | 11.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Vangelis ZougrisF | 22 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Thomas NdongF | 20 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Rory HawkeG | 20 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Darius BivinsG | 20 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jazz GardnerC | 17 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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