Portland St at San Francisco
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at The Sobrato Center. Portland St our rank 232 · 1-2; San Francisco our rank 127 · 3-0.
Who will win Portland St vs San Francisco?
The model gives San Francisco a 77% chance to beat Portland State, with a projected score of San Francisco 77, Portland St 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | |||||
| OosterbaanF · 33 min | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 15+ 40% | |
| BordonG · 30 min | 11.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 10+ 60% | |
| KnudsenF · 31 min | 11.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 55% | |
| HilmanG · 20 min | 8.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 36% | |
| Portland St | |||||
| RandolphF · 29 min | 13.5 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 15+ 40% | |
| NikonovG · 26 min | 11.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| IbekweC · 18 min | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 5+ 68% | |
| KearneyF · 19 min | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ben Oosterbaan: Portland St 27%San Francisco 73%
The white mark is the call with him: San Francisco 77%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San Francisco without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | ||||
| Ben Oosterbaan | 1.6 | 73% | −4 | 69–76 |
| Ndewedo Newbury | 1.4 | 73% | −4 | 69–76 |
| Gustav Knudsen | 0.5 | 76% | −1 | 69–77 |
| Portland St | ||||
| Luke Kearney | 0.7 | 79% | +2 | 68–77 |
Change is in San Francisco's win chance, in points. Scores read Portland St, then San Francisco. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Portland St 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 71-87at Colorado StCovered +16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 7L 60-79at Seattle UDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 3W 111-59vs Lewis & Clark
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 80.7 and allowing 75.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
San Francisco 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 63-58vs MontanaDidn't cover −11.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 6W 79-70vs N Dakota StCovered −8.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 2W 76-62vs Radford
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 72.7 and allowing 63.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Portland St | San Francisco | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.8 230th | 104.3 175th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.1 228th | 104.3 106th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 69.8 286th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 290th | 48.6% 311th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.0% 282nd | 50.2% 159th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 237th | 19.2% 302nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 73rd | 34.0% 64th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 118th | 0.29 45th |
The widest gap: San Francisco's defense (106th) against Portland St's offense (230th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Portland St 32, San Francisco 36
- First-half margin
- San Francisco by 4.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Projected second half
- Portland St 37, San Francisco 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Portland St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
- San Francisco, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Portland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquay RandolphF | 29 | 13.5 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 9+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Yaroslav NikonovG | 26 | 11.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Gantas KrianauskasG | 20 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Emil SkyttG | 20 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Luke KearneyF | 19 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| KC IbekweC | 18 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
| Trevor FrankG | 17 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Dennis Johnson IIIG | 17 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
San Francisco
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben OosterbaanF | 33 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Gustav KnudsenF | 31 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Dylan BordonG | 30 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ismaila DiagneC | 26 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 46% to play · 5+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Yoav VitlemG | 26 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ndewedo NewburyF | 21 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Andrew HilmanG | 20 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ismaila Diagne (30 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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