Who will win Furman vs Belmont?
The model gives Belmont a 58% chance to beat Furman, with a projected score of Belmont 77, Furman 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belmont | |||||
| SmileyG · 32 min | 17.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 15+ 64% | |
| JenkinsG · 27 min | 9.9 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| NeugebauerC · 24 min | 7.7 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| DillonF · 21 min | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 5+ 68% | |
 Furman | |||||
| HouseG · 28 min | 15.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 15+ 54% | |
| JohnstonF · 27 min | 11.5 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| FranklinG · 25 min | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| KellF · 24 min | 11.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jack Smiley: Furman 48%Belmont 52%
The white mark is the call with him: Belmont 58%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Belmont without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | ||||
| Jack Smiley | 1.9 | 52% | −6 | 76–76 |
| Jabez Jenkins | 1.3 | 54% | −4 | 76–77 |
| Aleksa Ristic | 0.8 | 55% | −3 | 75–77 |
| Isaiah West | 0.7 | 56% | −2 | 75–77 |
| Furman | ||||
| Charles Johnston | 1.7 | 64% | +6 | 74–78 |
| Marcus Kell | 1.0 | 61% | +3 | 74–78 |
| Jordan Butler | 0.9 | 61% | +3 | 74–78 |
| Tom House | 0.9 | 61% | +3 | 74–78 |
Change is in Belmont's win chance, in points. Scores read Furman, then Belmont. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Furman 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 80-67at Holy CrossCovered −12.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 7W 98-83vs Northern IowaCovered −4.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 4W 121-52vs Bob Jones
- Nov 2W 79-70vs Bethune
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 94.5 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Furman | Belmont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.1 122nd | 106.2 141st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.5 139th | 106.3 136th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 209th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 93rd | 51.7% 96th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 72nd | 50.3% 173rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 97th | 19.7% 327th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 217th | 31.7% 187th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 11th | 0.25 253rd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Furman 35, Belmont 36
- First-half margin
- Belmont by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Projected second half
- Furman 40, Belmont 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Furman, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.2 scored, 28.2 allowed
- Belmont, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 26.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Furman
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom HouseG | 28 | 15.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Charles JohnstonF | 27 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 9+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Luka ToewsG | 27 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Abijah FranklinG | 25 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Marcus KellF | 24 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Cameron ElwerG | 18 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jordan ButlerF | 14 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Collin O'NealG | 13 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack SmileyG | 32 | 17.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jabez JenkinsG | 27 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Vincent NeugebauerC | 24 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Isaiah WestG | 22 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Ethan SageG | 22 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Eoin DillonF | 21 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Aleksa RisticG | 21 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Matthew ZobristG | 18 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Eoin Dillon (24 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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