Who will win Yale vs Belmont?
The model gives Belmont a 53% chance to beat Yale, with a projected score of Belmont 76, Yale 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belmont | |||||
| SmileyG · 33 min | 17.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 15+ 63% | |
| JenkinsG · 27 min | 9.8 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 46% | |
| NeugebauerC · 25 min | 7.6 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 69% | |
| DillonF · 22 min | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 5+ 67% | |
 Yale | |||||
| FoxF · 32 min | 17.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 62% | |
| MullinG · 33 min | 13.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 15+ 40% | |
| BrathwaiteG · 31 min | 11.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| WallaceG · 24 min | 7.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jack Smiley: Yale 53%Belmont 47%
The white mark is the call with him: Belmont 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Belmont without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | ||||
| Jack Smiley | 1.9 | 47% | −6 | 76–75 |
| Jabez Jenkins | 1.3 | 49% | −4 | 76–75 |
| Aleksa Ristic | 0.8 | 51% | −2 | 75–76 |
| Isaiah West | 0.7 | 51% | −2 | 75–76 |
| Yale | ||||
| Riley Fox | 1.6 | 60% | +7 | 74–77 |
| Trevor Mullin | 1.0 | 58% | +5 | 75–77 |
| Courtney Wallace | 0.8 | 57% | +4 | 75–77 |
| Jordan Brathwaite | 0.7 | 57% | +4 | 75–76 |
Change is in Belmont's win chance, in points. Scores read Yale, then Belmont. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Yale | Belmont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.4 117th | 106.2 141st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.5 210th | 106.3 136th |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.8% 233rd | 51.7% 96th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 87th | 50.3% 173rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 228th | 19.7% 327th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.4% 90th | 31.7% 187th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 278th | 0.25 253rd |
The widest gap: Belmont's offense (141st) against Yale's defense (210th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Yale 35, Belmont 36
- First-half margin
- Belmont by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Yale 40, Belmont 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Yale, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Belmont, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 26.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Yale
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor MullinG | 33 | 13.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Riley FoxF | 32 | 17.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Jordan BrathwaiteG | 31 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Daniel OgunyemiF | 27 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Jack SullivanF | 25 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Courtney WallaceG | 24 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack SmileyG | 33 | 17.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jabez JenkinsG | 27 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Vincent NeugebauerC | 25 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Isaiah WestG | 22 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Ethan SageG | 22 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Eoin DillonF | 22 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Aleksa RisticG | 21 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Matthew ZobristG | 18 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Eoin Dillon (24 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…