St Bonaventure v App State
Monday, November 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at State Farm Field House. St Bonaventure our rank 111 · 2-1; App State our rank 148 · 2-1.
Who will win St Bonaventure vs App State?
The model gives St. Bonaventure a 64% chance to beat App State, with a projected score of St Bonaventure 73, App State 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | |||||
| BillC · 25 min | 13.8 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 15+ 41% | |
| PhilipkoskiG · 26 min | 12.8 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| FultonG · 28 min | 11.2 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| Au-DukeG · 26 min | 7.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5+ 68% | |
| App State | |||||
| ColonG · 29 min | 9.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| BanksG · 26 min | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 42% | |
| KopetzkiG · 24 min | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 35% | |
| LytchF · 16 min | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zach Philipkoski: St Bonaventure 59%App State 41%
The white mark is the call with him: St Bonaventure 64%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Bonaventure without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | ||||
| Zach Philipkoski | 1.4 | 59% | −5 | 72–69 |
| Benjamin Bill | 1.4 | 59% | −5 | 72–69 |
| Ari Fulton | 1.3 | 60% | −4 | 72–69 |
| Ryan Kalambay | 1.1 | 60% | −4 | 72–69 |
| App State | ||||
| Rrezon Elezaj | 1.1 | 68% | +4 | 73–68 |
| Jonathan Moss | 0.6 | 66% | +2 | 73–68 |
| Da'Mori Lytch | 0.6 | 66% | +2 | 73–68 |
| Ben Kopetzki | 0.6 | 66% | +2 | 73–68 |
Change is in St Bonaventure's win chance, in points. Scores read St Bonaventure, then App State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
St Bonaventure 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 88-64vs CornellCovered −7.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 7W 88-49at CanisiusCovered −9.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2L 71-79vs Youngstown St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Bonaventure | App State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.6 115th | 103.2 195th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.0 103rd | 105.8 128th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 215th | 68.1 362nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 77th | 49.6% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.9% 32nd | 47.9% 31st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 95th | 18.5% 229th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 49th | 34.2% 45th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 285th | 0.26 199th |
The widest gap: St Bonaventure's defense (103rd) against App State's offense (195th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Bonaventure 34, App State 32
- First-half margin
- St Bonaventure by 2.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- St Bonaventure 38, App State 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Bonaventure, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 25.7 allowed
- App State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Bonaventure
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ari FultonG | 28 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Zach PhilipkoskiG | 26 | 12.8 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Taj Au-DukeG | 26 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 61% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Benjamin BillC | 25 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Ilia ErmakovG | 24 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Ryan KalambayF | 16 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 54% | |||||
| Ryan HeathG | 14 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Cameron BlankenbergF | 14 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Missed the last game: Cameron Blankenberg (18 min a game).
App State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen ColonG | 29 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 50% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Eren BanksG | 26 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ben KopetzkiG | 24 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Chad MoodieF | 20 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
| Ted NealF | 17 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Da'Mori LytchF | 16 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Jonathan MossG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rrezon ElezajC | 12 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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