Who will win App State vs Charlotte?
The model gives Charlotte a 59% chance to beat App State, with a projected score of Charlotte 71, App State 68. The spread is Charlotte −7.5, with an over/under of 129.5. The model makes it Charlotte by 2.7, 4.8 points toward App State, and projects 138 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Charlotte | |||||
| TilleryG · 33 min | 18.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 20+ 39% | |
| FinisterG · 29 min | 10.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 10+ 53% | |
| WalzC · 22 min | 7.5 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 5+ 69% | |
| OgucheG · 18 min | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 5+ 60% | |
 App State | |||||
| ColonG · 29 min | 9.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| BanksG · 26 min | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 42% | |
| KopetzkiG · 24 min | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 34% | |
| LytchF · 16 min | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Keyshuan Tillery: App State 44%Charlotte 56%
The white mark is the call with him: Charlotte 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Charlotte without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | ||||
| Keyshuan Tillery | 1.1 | 56% | −3 | 68–70 |
| Michael Walz | 0.9 | 56% | −3 | 68–70 |
| Chaze Harris | 0.8 | 57% | −2 | 68–70 |
| Dylan Grant | 0.6 | 57% | −2 | 68–70 |
| App State | ||||
| Rrezon Elezaj | 1.1 | 63% | +4 | 67–71 |
| Jonathan Moss | 0.6 | 61% | +2 | 68–71 |
| Da'Mori Lytch | 0.6 | 61% | +2 | 68–71 |
| Ben Kopetzki | 0.6 | 61% | +2 | 68–71 |
Change is in Charlotte's win chance, in points. Scores read App State, then Charlotte. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Charlotte −7.5 | 129.5 |
| Model | Charlotte −2.7 | 138.5 |
| Gap | 4.8 toward App State | 9 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
App State 2-1WWL
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 55.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Charlotte 2-1WWL
- Nov 9L 62-68vs Seton HallDidn't cover +4.5 · Under 130.5
- Nov 5W 77-67vs Georgia StDidn't cover −11.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 78-70at Indiana St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 72.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| App State | Charlotte | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.2 195th | 105.3 154th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.8 128th | 108.2 177th |
| Possessions a game | 68.1 362nd | 68.7 348th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.6% 245th | 52.8% 47th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.9% 31st | 49.8% 135th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 229th | 19.7% 329th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 45th | 31.8% 180th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 199th | 0.26 196th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- App State 32, Charlotte 33
- First-half margin
- Charlotte by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.0
- Projected second half
- App State 36, Charlotte 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- App State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
- Charlotte, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
App State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen ColonG | 29 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 51% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Eren BanksG | 26 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ben KopetzkiG | 24 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Chad MoodieF | 20 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
| Ted NealF | 17 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Da'Mori LytchF | 16 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Jonathan MossG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rrezon ElezajC | 12 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Charlotte
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshuan TilleryG | 33 | 18.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 4+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Dorian FinisterG | 29 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Michael WalzC | 22 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jordi Rodriguez-StegemeijerG | 18 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Dylan GrantF | 18 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Miguel AllenF | 18 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Frank OgucheG | 18 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Tyler McKinleyF | 15 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…