Who won Merrimack vs App State?
Final: App State 63, Merrimack 49. Before tip-off the model gave App State a 48% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 0.6 points for Merrimack. Jaylen Colon scored 14 for App State; AJ Lesburt Jr. had 10 for Merrimack.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Rrezon Elezaj: Merrimack 57%App State 43%
The white mark is the call with him: Merrimack 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Merrimack without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 App State | ||||
| Rrezon Elezaj | 1.1 | 57% | +5 | 63–62 |
| Jonathan Moss | 0.6 | 55% | +3 | 63–62 |
| Da'Mori Lytch | 0.6 | 54% | +2 | 63–62 |
| Ben Kopetzki | 0.6 | 54% | +2 | 63–62 |
Change is in Merrimack's win chance, in points. Scores read Merrimack, then App State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Merrimack
No games yet this season: this is its first.
App State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Merrimack | App State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.5 296th | 103.2 195th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.6 214th | 105.8 128th |
| Possessions a game | 68.0 363rd | 68.1 362nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 260th | 49.6% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 180th | 47.9% 31st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 172nd | 18.5% 229th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 165th | 34.2% 45th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 299th | 0.26 199th |
The widest gap: App State's defense (128th) against Merrimack's offense (296th), of 365 teams.
First half
App State led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 22.3 points and the total by 5.4.
- At halftime
- Merrimack 21, App State 43
- Projected halftime score
- Merrimack 29, App State 29
- First-half margin
- Merrimack by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Merrimack
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Lesburt Jr.G | 35 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Denver AnglinG | 31 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Ayden JohnsonG | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Elijah WilbornF | 21 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeremiah AndersonG | 20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd BrognaF | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob MooreF | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan VeilletteF | 12 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| JP SkoricF | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
App State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen ColonG | 38 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Ben KopetzkiG | 38 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Eren BanksG | 33 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Ted NealF | 25 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad MoodieF | 19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Rrezon ElezajC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Mori LytchF | 10 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrin NjockF | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hermann KoffiG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |