Who will win Merrimack vs Florida?
The model gives Florida a >99% chance to beat Merrimack, with a projected score of Florida 91, Merrimack 53. The spread is Florida −37.5, with an over/under of 143.5. The model makes it Florida by 37.6, 0.1 points toward Florida, and projects 144 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida | |||||
| HaughF · 30 min | 16.8 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 15+ 59% | |
| CondonF · 28 min | 12.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 10+ 63% | |
| ChinyeluC · 26 min | 12.0 | 10.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 62% | |
| FlandG · 28 min | 10.6 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 10+ 52% | |
 Merrimack | |||||
| Lesburt Jr.G · 30 min | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| AnglinG · 26 min | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 67% | |
| JohnsonG · 25 min | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5+ 59% | |
| AndersonG · 20 min | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 5+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Thomas Haugh: Merrimack <1%Florida >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Florida >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Florida without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | ||||
| Thomas Haugh | 5.8 | >99% | 0 | 56–88 |
| Rueben Chinyelu | 5.3 | >99% | 0 | 56–88 |
| Alex Condon | 5.2 | >99% | 0 | 56–88 |
| Boogie Fland | 4.3 | >99% | 0 | 55–88 |
Change is in Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read Merrimack, then Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Florida −37.5 | 143.5 |
| Model | Florida −37.6 | 143.7 |
| Gap | 0.1 toward Florida | 0.2 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Merrimack 1-2LLW
- Nov 8W 73-60at UAlbanyCovered −1.5 · Under 134.5
- Nov 5L 61-71vs UMass LowellDidn't cover −9.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 2L 49-63vs App State
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.0 and allowing 64.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Florida 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 81-72at Florida StCovered −8.5 · Under 164.5
- Nov 5W 88-57vs JacksonvilleDidn't cover −36.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 77-67vs Miami
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 82.0 and allowing 65.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Merrimack | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.5 296th | 123.0 3rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.6 214th | 90.0 5th |
| Possessions a game | 68.0 363rd | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 260th | 52.3% 70th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 180th | 46.9% 14th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 172nd | 18.6% 251st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 165th | 36.0% 9th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 299th | 0.32 15th |
The widest gap: Florida's defense (5th) against Merrimack's offense (296th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Merrimack 23, Florida 44
- First-half margin
- Florida by 20.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Projected second half
- Merrimack 30, Florida 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Merrimack, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
- Florida, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Merrimack
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Lesburt Jr.G | 30 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Denver AnglinG | 26 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 39% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Todd BrognaF | 26 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Ayden JohnsonG | 25 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jeremiah AndersonG | 20 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Elijah WilbornF | 20 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 50% | |||||
| Jacob MooreF | 17 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
| JP SkoricF | 13 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas HaughF | 30 | 16.8 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Boogie FlandG | 28 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Alex CondonF | 28 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 58% | |||||
| Rueben ChinyeluC | 26 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 11+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Denzel AberdeenG | 26 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Urban KlavzarG | 20 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 39% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Isaiah BrownG | 14 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Domen PetrovicF | 14 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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