Who will win Boston U vs Merrimack?
The model gives Merrimack a 55% chance to beat Boston University, with a projected score of Merrimack 71, Boston U 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Merrimack | |||||
| Lesburt Jr.G · 34 min | 13.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 15+ 41% | |
| AnglinG · 29 min | 10.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 50% | |
| JohnsonG · 27 min | 8.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 40% | |
| AndersonG · 21 min | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
 Boston U | |||||
| AlexanderG · 33 min | 14.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 46% | |
| ObertiF · 24 min | 11.6 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| HughesF · 34 min | 11.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| AbdullahG · 29 min | 10.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Michelangelo Oberti: Boston U 42%Merrimack 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Merrimack 55%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Merrimack without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston U | ||||
| Michelangelo Oberti | 0.8 | 58% | +3 | 69–71 |
Change is in Merrimack's win chance, in points. Scores read Boston U, then Merrimack. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Boston U 3-1WWLW
- Nov 12W 100-74vs Johnson & Wales
- Nov 9L 55-72at NorthwesternDidn't cover +13.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 6W 72-67at BrownCovered +1.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 93-85vs Northeastern
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 80.0 and allowing 74.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Boston U | Merrimack | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.7 169th | 98.5 296th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.7 303rd | 109.6 214th |
| Possessions a game | 68.9 337th | 68.0 363rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.0% 87th | 49.4% 260th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 139th | 50.4% 180th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 309th | 18.0% 172nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 47th | 31.9% 165th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 41st | 0.24 299th |
The widest gap: Boston U's offense (169th) against Merrimack's defense (214th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Boston U 33, Merrimack 33
- First-half margin
- Merrimack by 0.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.9
- Projected second half
- Boston U 37, Merrimack 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Boston U, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 38.0 scored, 38.0 allowed
- Merrimack, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Boston U
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam HughesF | 34 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kyrone AlexanderG | 33 | 14.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Azmar AbdullahG | 29 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Michelangelo ObertiF | 24 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Matai BaptisteF | 24 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Alex ZakheimG | 23 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Darnell Lloyd IVF | 17 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
| Andrew BhesaniaF | 17 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: Azmar Abdullah (31 min a game).
Merrimack
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Lesburt Jr.G | 34 | 13.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Denver AnglinG | 29 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Todd BrognaF | 28 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ayden JohnsonG | 27 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Jeremiah AndersonG | 21 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Elijah WilbornF | 20 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Jacob MooreF | 17 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| JP SkoricF | 11 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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