Who will win FGCU vs FAU?
The model gives Florida Atlantic a 63% chance to beat Florida Gulf Coast, with a projected score of FAU 81, FGCU 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FAU | |||||
| CarlyleG · 37 min | 20.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 20+ 52% | |
| HamiltonG · 22 min | 16.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 15+ 55% | |
| HarrisF · 25 min | 15.2 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 15+ 50% | |
| QuinonesG · 34 min | 11.8 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 10+ 60% | |
 FGCU | |||||
| LucasF · 29 min | 15.2 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| WilliamsG · 29 min | 13.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 15+ 41% | |
| KoniecznyF · 28 min | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 64% | |
| HouserC · 22 min | 10.1 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 49% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kanaan Carlyle: FGCU 42%FAU 58%
The white mark is the call with him: FAU 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | FAU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | ||||
| Kanaan Carlyle | 1.4 | 58% | −5 | 78–80 |
| Jelani Hamilton | 1.3 | 58% | −5 | 78–80 |
| Josh Harris | 1.2 | 58% | −5 | 78–80 |
| Braeden Speed | 0.7 | 60% | −3 | 78–81 |
| FGCU | ||||
| Bryson Lucas | 1.1 | 66% | +3 | 77–82 |
| Chase Konieczny | 0.8 | 65% | +2 | 77–81 |
| Turk Brown III | 0.8 | 65% | +2 | 77–81 |
Change is in FAU's win chance, in points. Scores read FGCU, then FAU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FGCU 1-2LWL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 85.3 and allowing 81.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
FAU 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 95-90vs William & MaryDidn't cover −5.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 6L 71-97at Wright StDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 2W 74-60vs Long Island
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.0 and allowing 82.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FGCU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.5 132nd | 106.7 131st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.7 215th | 111.0 261st |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 215th | 72.0 63rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 52nd | 50.5% 180th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 257th | 51.7% 270th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.7% 137th | 18.8% 267th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.3% 145th | 31.1% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 157th | 0.28 89th |
The widest gap: FGCU's offense (132nd) against FAU's defense (261st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FGCU 36, FAU 38
- First-half margin
- FAU by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.3
- Projected second half
- FGCU 41, FAU 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FGCU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 38.7 allowed
- FAU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 39.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FGCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson LucasF | 29 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Darren WilliamsG | 29 | 13.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3.1 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Chase KoniecznyF | 28 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Turk Brown IIIG | 26 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Justin HouserC | 22 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Elijah BrooksG | 18 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| CJ OutlawF | 16 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| BB WashingtonG | 16 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
Missed the last game: Justin Houser (26 min a game).
FAU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanaan CarlyleG | 37 | 20.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 20+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Felipe QuinonesG | 34 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Josh HarrisF | 25 | 15.2 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 7+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Mason Porter-BrownF | 23 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Milhan CharlesG | 22 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jelani HamiltonG | 22 | 16.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tacko IfaolaC | 17 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
| Kieran MullenC | 14 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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