Who will win Mercer vs FAU?
The model gives Florida Atlantic a 63% chance to beat Mercer, with a projected score of FAU 83, Mercer 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FAU | |||||
| CarlyleG · 37 min | 20.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 20+ 53% | |
| HamiltonG · 22 min | 16.3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 15+ 56% | |
| HarrisF · 25 min | 15.5 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 15+ 52% | |
| QuinonesG · 34 min | 12.0 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 10+ 62% | |
 Mercer | |||||
| Perkins IIG · 31 min | 15.1 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 15+ 50% | |
| BoydF · 30 min | 12.1 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 63% | |
| GoodmanG · 27 min | 11.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 10+ 59% | |
| CherryG · 18 min | 10.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kanaan Carlyle: Mercer 42%FAU 58%
The white mark is the call with him: FAU 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | FAU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | ||||
| Kanaan Carlyle | 1.4 | 58% | −5 | 80–82 |
| Jelani Hamilton | 1.3 | 58% | −5 | 80–82 |
| Josh Harris | 1.2 | 58% | −5 | 80–82 |
| Braeden Speed | 0.7 | 60% | −3 | 80–82 |
| Mercer | ||||
| Karon Boyd | 1.4 | 67% | +4 | 79–84 |
| Brady Shoulders | 0.8 | 65% | +2 | 79–83 |
Change is in FAU's win chance, in points. Scores read Mercer, then FAU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mercer 2-3WLLWL
- Nov 12L 61-75at West VirginiaCovered +24.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 10W 97-91at GA SouthernCovered +1.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 7L 76-88at DavidsonDidn't cover +11.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 5L 67-96at Virginia TechDidn't cover +20.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 2W 90-53vs Reinhardt
- Last five
- 2–3, scoring 78.2 and allowing 80.6
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–2
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 1 under
FAU 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 95-90vs William & MaryDidn't cover −5.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 6L 71-97at Wright StDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 2W 74-60vs Long Island
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.0 and allowing 82.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mercer | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.1 121st | 106.7 131st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 259th | 111.0 261st |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 103rd | 72.0 63rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.9% 150th | 50.5% 180th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 67th | 51.7% 270th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.9% 53rd | 18.8% 267th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 22nd | 31.1% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 206th | 0.28 89th |
The widest gap: Mercer's offense (121st) against FAU's defense (261st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mercer 37, FAU 39
- First-half margin
- FAU by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.0
- Projected second half
- Mercer 42, FAU 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 86.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mercer, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 5 · 32.6 scored, 35.8 allowed
- FAU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 39.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mercer
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady ShouldersG | 32 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Quinton Perkins IIG | 31 | 15.1 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 54% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Karon BoydF | 30 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Derek GoodmanG | 27 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Makoi Mabor MakoiF | 26 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 52% | |||||
| KJ LamonteG | 19 | 8.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 53% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Shane CherryG | 18 | 10.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Sawyer MayhughF | 18 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 78% to play · 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Missed the last game: KJ Lamonte (23 min a game).
FAU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanaan CarlyleG | 37 | 20.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| 20+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Felipe QuinonesG | 34 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Josh HarrisF | 25 | 15.5 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Mason Porter-BrownF | 23 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Milhan CharlesG | 22 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jelani HamiltonG | 22 | 16.3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tacko IfaolaC | 17 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Kieran MullenC | 14 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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