Nevada v Santa Clara
Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. Nevada our rank 72 · 2-1; Santa Clara our rank 75 · 4-0.
Who will win Nevada vs Santa Clara?
The model gives Nevada a 56% chance to beat Santa Clara, with a projected score of Nevada 79, Santa Clara 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | |||||
| PhippsG · 28 min | 17.0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 15+ 61% | |
| WeemsG · 30 min | 16.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 15+ 59% | |
| PriceF · 32 min | 13.4 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 15+ 39% | |
| BandeljG · 24 min | 8.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 10+ 40% | |
| Santa Clara | |||||
| GavalyugovG · 29 min | 11.7 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 10+ 60% | |
| CastilloG · 24 min | 11.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| Longcor IIIG · 25 min | 10.5 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| TadjoF · 22 min | 9.1 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Elijah Price: Nevada 43%Santa Clara 57%
The white mark is the call with him: Nevada 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Nevada without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | ||||
| Elijah Price | 3.6 | 43% | −13 | 77–79 |
| Vaughn Weems | 2.9 | 46% | −10 | 78–79 |
| Styles Phipps | 1.7 | 50% | −6 | 78–78 |
| Peter Bandelj | 1.4 | 51% | −5 | 78–78 |
| Santa Clara | ||||
| Jake Ensminger | 2.4 | 64% | +8 | 80–76 |
| Sash Gavalyugov | 2.0 | 63% | +7 | 80–76 |
| Thierry Darlan | 1.5 | 61% | +5 | 80–76 |
| Fedor Zugic | 1.3 | 61% | +5 | 80–77 |
Change is in Nevada's win chance, in points. Scores read Nevada, then Santa Clara. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Nevada 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 63-76at Santa BarbaraDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 8W 96-95vs Saint Mary'sDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 2W 86-49vs Robert Morris
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.7 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Santa Clara 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 76-71at North TexasCovered −1.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 7W 83-77vs Sacramento StDidn't cover −19.5 · Under 170.5
- Nov 4W 95-72vs MilwaukeeCovered −15.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 2W 89-70vs Towson
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 85.8 and allowing 72.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Nevada | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.2 66th | 111.7 78th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.8 80th | 101.7 77th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 72.8 26th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 159th | 50.7% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.7% 23rd | 48.7% 54th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 63rd | 18.1% 184th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.0% 106th | 31.9% 172nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 109th | 0.24 266th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Nevada 37, Santa Clara 36
- First-half margin
- Nevada by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Projected second half
- Nevada 42, Santa Clara 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Nevada, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Santa Clara, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.0 scored, 34.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Nevada
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah PriceF | 32 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 9+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Vaughn WeemsG | 30 | 16.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Styles PhippsG | 28 | 17.0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 5+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Peter BandeljG | 24 | 8.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Peyton WhiteG | 21 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Myles WalkerG | 14 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 3+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Keyon Kensie Jr.G | 14 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Simon MajokC | 14 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 51% | |||||
Santa Clara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake EnsmingerG | 31 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Sash GavalyugovG | 29 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Brad Longcor IIIG | 25 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| David CastilloG | 24 | 11.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Fedor ZugicG | 23 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Chris TadjoF | 22 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Elijah MahiF | 19 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 51% to play · 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Thierry DarlanG | 18 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elijah Mahi (21 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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