Texas Tech v Louisville
Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Texas Tech AP 16, our rank 13 · 3-0; Louisville AP 10, our rank 10 · 2-0.
Who will win Texas Tech vs Louisville?
The model gives Louisville a 53% chance to beat Texas Tech, with a projected score of Louisville 76, Texas Tech 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | |||||
| ShelstadG · 29 min | 10.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| TrimbleG · 26 min | 10.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| BidungaF · 23 min | 10.8 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| WooleyG · 26 min | 10.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| Texas Tech | |||||
| DavisG · 36 min | 16.5 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 15+ 58% | |
| Gibbs-LawhornG · 26 min | 14.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 15+ 46% | |
| AtwellG · 34 min | 10.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 48% | |
| StillwellF · 25 min | 10.0 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Flory Bidunga: Texas Tech 64%Louisville 36%
The white mark is the call with him: Louisville 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Louisville without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | ||||
| Flory Bidunga | 4.6 | 36% | −17 | 77–74 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras | 4.5 | 36% | −17 | 77–74 |
| Seth Trimble | 3.6 | 40% | −13 | 77–74 |
| Adrian Wooley | 3.6 | 40% | −13 | 77–74 |
| Texas Tech | ||||
| Cruz Davis | 4.4 | 70% | +17 | 73–78 |
| Jamichael Stillwell | 4.4 | 70% | +17 | 73–78 |
| Donovan Atwell | 4.1 | 69% | +16 | 73–78 |
| Darrion Williams | 3.4 | 67% | +14 | 73–78 |
Change is in Louisville's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas Tech, then Louisville. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas Tech 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 84-78vs IllinoisCovered +2.5 · Under 166.5
- Nov 5W 76-58vs BethuneDidn't cover −30.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 76-42vs Jackson St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 59.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Louisville 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 107-57vs Morehead StCovered −38.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 2W 84-70vs Chattanooga
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 95.5 and allowing 63.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas Tech | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.7 31st | 120.9 6th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.1 12th | 95.0 24th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.0% 288th | 51.6% 101st |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.8% 130th | 50.0% 144th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 172nd | 16.9% 56th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 132nd | 35.4% 16th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 68th | 0.24 268th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas Tech 35, Louisville 36
- First-half margin
- Louisville by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Projected second half
- Texas Tech 40, Louisville 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas Tech, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 23.7 allowed
- Louisville, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 51.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz DavisG | 36 | 16.5 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 4+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Donovan AtwellG | 34 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 52% | |||||
| Darrion WilliamsF | 28 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Dra Gibbs-LawhornG | 26 | 14.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jamichael StillwellF | 25 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Damarion DennisG | 20 | 9.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Josiah MoseleyF | 17 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
| Bassala BagayokoF | 17 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Louisville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson ShelstadG | 29 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Alvaro FolgueirasF | 27 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Seth TrimbleG | 26 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Adrian WooleyG | 26 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Flory BidungaF | 23 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Karter KnoxG | 21 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Obinna Ekezie Jr.C | 17 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Isaac EllisG | 15 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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