Chattanooga 70, Louisville 84
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center. Chattanooga our rank 182 · 1-2; Louisville AP 10, our rank 10 · 2-0.
Who won Chattanooga vs Louisville?
Final: Louisville 84, Chattanooga 70. Before tip-off the model gave Louisville a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 30.7 points for Louisville. Flory Bidunga scored 16 for Louisville; Yonatan Levy had 14 for Chattanooga.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Flory Bidunga: Chattanooga 2%Louisville 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Louisville 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Louisville without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | ||||
| Flory Bidunga | 4.6 | 98% | −1 | 57–83 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras | 4.5 | 98% | −1 | 57–83 |
| Seth Trimble | 3.6 | 99% | 0 | 57–84 |
| Adrian Wooley | 3.6 | 99% | 0 | 57–84 |
| Chattanooga | ||||
| Kobe McDowell-White | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 54–86 |
| Zach Bleshoy | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 54–86 |
| Lenny Anigbata | 0.5 | 99% | 0 | 54–86 |
Change is in Louisville's win chance, in points. Scores read Chattanooga, then Louisville. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Chattanooga
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Louisville
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Chattanooga | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.3 120th | 120.9 6th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.6 300th | 95.0 24th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.1% 16th | 51.6% 101st |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 88th | 50.0% 144th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 240th | 16.9% 56th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 85th | 35.4% 16th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 225th | 0.24 268th |
The widest gap: Louisville's offense (6th) against Chattanooga's defense (300th), of 365 teams.
First half
Louisville led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 25.3.
- At halftime
- Chattanooga 35, Louisville 56
- Projected halftime score
- Chattanooga 24, Louisville 41
- First-half margin
- Louisville by 16.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Chattanooga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe McDowell-WhiteG | 33 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| Lenny AnigbataG | 30 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Yonatan LevyF | 26 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Matt HamptonG | 25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Zach BleshoyG | 25 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| Christian MatosG | 18 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sean CusanoG | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tre PowellG | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh BowmanF | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Louisville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaro FolgueirasF | 34 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Jackson ShelstadG | 32 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Adrian WooleyG | 28 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Flory BidungaF | 27 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Seth TrimbleG | 26 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Karter KnoxG | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaac EllisG | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| LJ WellsF | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Obinna Ekezie Jr.C | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |