Chattanooga at Elon
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Schar Center. Chattanooga our rank 182 · 1-2; Elon our rank 184 · 2-1.
Who will win Chattanooga vs Elon?
The model gives Elon a 59% chance to beat Chattanooga, with a projected score of Elon 78, Chattanooga 76. The spread is Elon −2.5, with an over/under of 151.5. The model agrees with the spread, and projects 154 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | |||||
| DaltonF · 30 min | 13.9 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 15+ 42% | |
| CokleyG · 26 min | 11.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| HardingC · 21 min | 8.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 35% | |
| Pettus IIG · 26 min | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 10+ 32% | |
| Chattanooga | |||||
| McDowell-WhiteG · 29 min | 15.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| AnigbataG · 25 min | 11.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| HamptonG · 25 min | 11.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| BleshoyG · 26 min | 9.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Josh Dalton: Chattanooga 44%Elon 56%
The white mark is the call with him: Elon 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Elon without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | ||||
| Josh Dalton | 0.8 | 56% | −3 | 76–78 |
| Raúl Villar | 0.7 | 56% | −3 | 76–78 |
| Bryson Cokley | 0.5 | 57% | −2 | 76–78 |
| Chattanooga | ||||
| Kobe McDowell-White | 0.6 | 61% | +2 | 75–78 |
| Zach Bleshoy | 0.6 | 61% | +2 | 75–78 |
| Lenny Anigbata | 0.5 | 61% | +2 | 75–78 |
Change is in Elon's win chance, in points. Scores read Chattanooga, then Elon. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Elon −2.5 | 151.5 |
| Model | Elon −2.5 | 153.7 |
| Gap | None | 2.2 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Chattanooga 1-2LLW
- Nov 9W 97-67vs Covenant
- Nov 5L 93-97at Penn StateCovered +12.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2L 70-84at Louisville
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 86.7 and allowing 82.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Elon 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 50-69at G WashingtonDidn't cover +13.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 6W 74-65vs UNC GreensboroDidn't cover −9.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 2W 84-71at Columbia
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 69.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Chattanooga | Elon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.3 120th | 103.0 200th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.6 300th | 108.6 189th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 70.0 266th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.1% 16th | 50.4% 186th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 88th | 48.7% 51st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 240th | 18.7% 257th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 85th | 34.1% 51st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 225th | 0.26 161st |
The widest gap: Elon's offense (200th) against Chattanooga's defense (300th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Chattanooga 35, Elon 37
- First-half margin
- Elon by 1.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.1
- Projected second half
- Chattanooga 40, Elon 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Chattanooga, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 44.0 allowed
- Elon, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Chattanooga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe McDowell-WhiteG | 29 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Zach BleshoyG | 26 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Matt HamptonG | 25 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Lenny AnigbataG | 25 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Yonatan LevyF | 22 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Christian MatosG | 20 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Sean CusanoG | 12 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Elon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh DaltonF | 30 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Raúl VillarG | 29 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Randall Pettus IIG | 26 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Bryson CokleyG | 26 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Hunter HardingC | 21 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Isaiah MbengG | 20 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Cam ThrowerG | 16 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Caleb ZhuF | 12 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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