Xavier v Mississippi St
Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Colonial Hall. Xavier our rank 26 · 3-0; Mississippi St our rank 51 · 3-0.
Who will win Xavier vs Mississippi St?
The model gives Xavier a 67% chance to beat Mississippi State, with a projected score of Xavier 81, Mississippi St 76. The spread is Xavier −3.5, with an over/under of 165.5. The model makes it Xavier by 4.8, 1.3 points toward Xavier, and projects 156 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | |||||
| NwokoF · 22 min | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 62% | |
| WestryG · 19 min | 11.2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| MilicevicF · 21 min | 10.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| WashingtonG · 23 min | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| Mississippi St | |||||
| HubbardG · 28 min | 17.1 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 15+ 61% | |
| JohnsonG · 20 min | 9.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| HamiltonF · 23 min | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| SimpkinsG · 20 min | 8.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mike Nwoko: Xavier 55%Mississippi St 45%
The white mark is the call with him: Xavier 67%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Xavier without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | ||||
| Mike Nwoko | 3.3 | 55% | −12 | 79–78 |
| Tru Washington | 3.2 | 56% | −11 | 79–77 |
| Filip Borovicanin | 2.6 | 58% | −9 | 79–77 |
| Chance Westry | 2.6 | 58% | −9 | 79–77 |
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Josh Hubbard | 3.3 | 77% | +10 | 82–74 |
| Tajuan Simpkins | 2.7 | 75% | +8 | 82–75 |
| Kimani Hamilton | 2.2 | 73% | +6 | 82–75 |
| RJ Johnson | 2.0 | 73% | +6 | 82–75 |
Change is in Xavier's win chance, in points. Scores read Xavier, then Mississippi St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Xavier −3.5 | 165.5 |
| Model | Xavier −4.8 | 156.5 |
| Gap | 1.3 toward Xavier | 9 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Xavier 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 100-55vs Detroit MercyCovered −35.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 76-53vs E MichiganDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 97-52vs Mount St Marys
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.0 and allowing 53.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Mississippi St 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 98-57vs Jackson StCovered −24.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 82-44vs N'Western StCovered −21.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 106-88vs Tennessee Tech
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.3 and allowing 63.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Xavier | Mississippi St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.1 61st | 116.1 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.3 13th | 100.3 64th |
| Possessions a game | 73.5 7th | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.0% 83rd | 52.7% 53rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.6% 2nd | 49.9% 139th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 205th | 17.9% 163rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 228th | 36.4% 4th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 294th | 0.26 205th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Xavier 38, Mississippi St 35
- First-half margin
- Xavier by 2.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Projected second half
- Xavier 43, Mississippi St 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 20.3 allowed
- Mississippi St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip BorovicaninF | 24 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Tru WashingtonG | 23 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Mike NwokoF | 22 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Jovan MilicevicF | 21 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Ruben DominguezG | 21 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Chance WestryG | 19 | 11.2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Nikos ChitikoudisF | 18 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Gabriel PozzatoF | 16 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HubbardG | 28 | 17.1 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 4+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kimani HamiltonF | 23 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Thomas BassongF | 22 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| RJ JohnsonG | 20 | 9.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Tajuan SimpkinsG | 20 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| ND OkaforC | 17 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| King GraceG | 16 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Kendyl SandersF | 15 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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