Cleveland St at Xavier
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Cintas Center. Cleveland St our rank 335 · 1-2; Xavier our rank 26 · 3-0.
Who will win Cleveland St vs Xavier?
The model gives Xavier a >99% chance to beat Cleveland State, with a projected score of Xavier 97, Cleveland St 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | |||||
| NwokoF · 21 min | 13.7 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 15+ 41% | |
| WestryG · 18 min | 12.9 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| MilicevicF · 21 min | 11.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| WashingtonG · 22 min | 10.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 10+ 54% | |
| Cleveland St | |||||
| GriffithG · 28 min | 13.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 15+ 41% | |
| LoweryG · 26 min | 7.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 5+ 67% | |
| JonesF · 20 min | 6.7 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 5+ 62% | |
| BaysG · 17 min | 6.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mike Nwoko: Cleveland St <1%Xavier >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Xavier >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Xavier without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | ||||
| Mike Nwoko | 3.3 | >99% | 0 | 64–96 |
| Tru Washington | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 64–96 |
| Filip Borovicanin | 2.6 | >99% | 0 | 64–96 |
| Chance Westry | 2.6 | >99% | 0 | 64–96 |
Change is in Xavier's win chance, in points. Scores read Cleveland St, then Xavier. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cleveland St 1-2LWL
- Nov 9L 79-95at Bowling GreenDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 6W 103-79vs Michigan Dearborn
- Nov 3L 50-111at Missouri
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.3 and allowing 95.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Xavier 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 100-55vs Detroit MercyCovered −35.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 76-53vs E MichiganDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 97-52vs Mount St Marys
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.0 and allowing 53.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cleveland St | Xavier | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.9 201st | 114.1 61st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 119.9 364th | 92.3 13th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.3% 124th | 52.0% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 55.3% 361st | 45.6% 2nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 192nd | 18.3% 205th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 174th | 31.0% 228th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 208th | 0.24 294th |
The widest gap: Xavier's offense (61st) against Cleveland St's defense (364th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cleveland St 28, Xavier 47
- First-half margin
- Xavier by 19.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Projected second half
- Cleveland St 34, Xavier 50
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cleveland St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 46.7 allowed
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 20.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cleveland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayvon GriffithG | 28 | 13.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Jordan LoweryG | 26 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Curtis Stinson Jr.G | 21 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Dre JonesF | 20 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Alex BruskotterG | 19 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Ogbe UagboeG | 17 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Micah BaysG | 17 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Gavin HeadingsF | 17 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip BorovicaninF | 22 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| Tru WashingtonG | 22 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Mike NwokoF | 21 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jovan MilicevicF | 21 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Ruben DominguezG | 20 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 60% | |||||
| Chance WestryG | 18 | 12.9 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Nikos ChitikoudisF | 17 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Gabriel PozzatoF | 17 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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