West Florida v Cleveland St
Friday, November 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Event Center. West Florida our rank 260 · 2-2; Cleveland St our rank 335 · 1-2.
Who will win West Florida vs Cleveland St?
The model gives West Florida a 64% chance to beat Cleveland State, with a projected score of West Florida 82, Cleveland St 78. The spread is Cleveland St −3.5, with an over/under of 153.5. The model makes it West Florida by 4.1, 7.6 points toward West Florida, and projects 160 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Florida | |||||
| ShineG · 22 min | 15.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 15+ 52% | |
| Godley Jr.G · 25 min | 11.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| RutatikaF · 19 min | 8.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 36% | |
| DickersonF · 22 min | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 10+ 35% | |
| Cleveland St | |||||
| GriffithG · 31 min | 18.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 20+ 41% | |
| LoweryG · 28 min | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 10+ 44% | |
| JonesF · 21 min | 8.1 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 10+ 34% | |
| BaysG · 17 min | 7.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Cleveland St −3.5 | 153.5 |
| Model | West Florida −4.1 | 160.5 |
| Gap | 7.6 toward West Florida | 7 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
West Florida 2-2WLWL
- Nov 12L 83-85at Alabama A&MCovered +5.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 9W 110-59vs Baptist (Fl)
- Nov 6L 75-85at FIUCovered +16.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 2W 127-42vs Southeastern Baptist
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 98.8 and allowing 67.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Cleveland St 1-2LWL
- Nov 9L 79-95at Bowling GreenDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 6W 103-79vs Michigan Dearborn
- Nov 3L 50-111at Missouri
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.3 and allowing 95.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| West Florida | Cleveland St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.3 214th | 102.9 201st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.9 307th | 119.9 364th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.3% 272nd | 51.3% 124th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 125th | 55.3% 361st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 89th | 18.1% 192nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.3% 44th | 31.8% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 28th | 0.26 208th |
The widest gap: West Florida's offense (214th) against Cleveland St's defense (364th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- West Florida 39, Cleveland St 37
- First-half margin
- West Florida by 2.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.3
- Projected second half
- West Florida 44, Cleveland St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 85.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- West Florida, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 46.8 scored, 33.2 allowed
- Cleveland St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 46.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
West Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Godley Jr.G | 25 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Eze WaliG | 24 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| DJ ShineG | 22 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Daylon DickersonF | 22 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Christian ValarezoG | 20 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Isaiah AlexanderF | 19 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Sano RutatikaF | 19 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Tim Hall Jr.F | 16 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jordan Samuel (20 min a game).
Cleveland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayvon GriffithG | 31 | 18.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Jordan LoweryG | 28 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Curtis Stinson Jr.G | 22 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Dre JonesF | 21 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 54% | |||||
| Alex BruskotterG | 19 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Ogbe UagboeG | 17 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Micah BaysG | 17 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Gavin HeadingsF | 16 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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