Green Bay at West Florida
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at UWF Field House. Green Bay our rank 145 · 2-2; West Florida our rank 260 · 2-2.
Who will win Green Bay vs West Florida?
The model gives Green Bay a 66% chance to beat West Florida, with a projected score of Green Bay 79, West Florida 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | |||||
| LovejoyG · 31 min | 15.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 15+ 53% | |
| HallF · 33 min | 13.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| BrownG · 27 min | 12.7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| CarsonG · 23 min | 11.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 10+ 55% | |
| West Florida | |||||
| ShineG · 22 min | 14.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 15+ 45% | |
| Godley Jr.G · 25 min | 10.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 54% | |
| RutatikaF · 19 min | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| DickersonF · 22 min | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Orlando Lovejoy: Green Bay 61%West Florida 39%
The white mark is the call with him: Green Bay 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Green Bay without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | ||||
| Orlando Lovejoy | 1.4 | 61% | −5 | 78–75 |
| Marcus Hall | 0.9 | 63% | −3 | 78–74 |
| Henry Gruetzmacher | 0.6 | 64% | −2 | 78–74 |
Change is in Green Bay's win chance, in points. Scores read Green Bay, then West Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Green Bay 2-2WLWL
- Nov 10L 76-89at Northern IowaDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 8W 76-67at St ThomasCovered +8.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 5L 64-81at CincinnatiCovered +23.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 2W 94-51vs Lawrence
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 77.5 and allowing 72.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
West Florida 2-2WLWL
- Nov 12L 83-85at Alabama A&MCovered +5.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 9W 110-59vs Baptist (Fl)
- Nov 6L 75-85at FIUCovered +16.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 2W 127-42vs Southeastern Baptist
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 98.8 and allowing 67.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Green Bay | West Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.7 107th | 102.3 214th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 256th | 112.9 307th |
| Possessions a game | 68.7 348th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.0% 38th | 49.3% 272nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 319th | 49.6% 125th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 283rd | 17.2% 89th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 33rd | 34.3% 44th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 272nd | 0.31 28th |
The widest gap: Green Bay's offense (107th) against West Florida's defense (307th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Green Bay 37, West Florida 35
- First-half margin
- Green Bay by 2.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Projected second half
- Green Bay 42, West Florida 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Green Bay, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 35.0 scored, 34.2 allowed
- West Florida, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 46.8 scored, 33.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Green Bay
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus HallF | 33 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Orlando LovejoyG | 31 | 15.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ne'quan BrownG | 27 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ahmere CarsonG | 23 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Isaiah SutherlandF | 18 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Maruan CicicC | 17 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Clarence PayiaG | 14 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Mac WreckeG | 10 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
West Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Godley Jr.G | 25 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Eze WaliG | 24 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| DJ ShineG | 22 | 14.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Daylon DickersonF | 22 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Christian ValarezoG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Isaiah AlexanderF | 19 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Sano RutatikaF | 19 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Tim Hall Jr.F | 16 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jordan Samuel (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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