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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 20

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Green Bay at Florida St

Friday, November 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Tucker Center. Green Bay our rank 145 · 2-2; Florida St our rank 47 · 2-1.

Who will win Green Bay vs Florida St?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Florida State a 94% chance to beat Green Bay, with a projected score of Florida St 87, Green Bay 70.

To winFlorida St 94%Green Bay 6%
Projected score70–87Green Bay, then Florida St
Margin17.5Florida St · no line posted
Total157.1no line posted
First half32–42Florida St ahead 82%
Green Bay by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Florida St by 50Model: Florida St by 17.5Green Bay by 10by 10by 30Florida St by 50Model: Florida St by 17.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Florida St
RancikF · 30 min19.45.32.320+ 46%
TaylorG · 28 min15.64.52.815+ 52%
Robinson IIG · 28 min12.83.73.615+ 36%
AbaevF · 28 min12.85.73.215+ 35%
Green Bay
LovejoyG · 30 min13.53.42.915+ 40%
HallF · 32 min11.83.61.810+ 61%
BrownG · 26 min11.14.02.010+ 56%
CarsonG · 23 min9.72.72.110+ 46%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Sebastian Rancik: Green Bay 10%Florida St 90%

The white mark is the call with him: Florida St 94%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsFlorida St without himChangeProjected score
Florida St
Sebastian Rancik3.590%−472–86
Anthony Robinson II3.190%−471–86
Shon Abaev3.090%−471–86
Kam Taylor2.691%−371–86
Green Bay
Orlando Lovejoy1.496%+269–88
Marcus Hall0.995%+169–88
Henry Gruetzmacher0.695%+170–88

Change is in Florida St's win chance, in points. Scores read Green Bay, then Florida St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Green Bay 2-2WLWL

    1. Nov 10L 76-89at Northern IowaDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 150.5
    2. Nov 8W 76-67at St ThomasCovered +8.5 · Under 149.5
    3. Nov 5L 64-81at CincinnatiCovered +23.5 · Under 152.5
    4. Nov 2W 94-51vs Lawrence
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 77.5 and allowing 72.0
    Against the spread, this season
    2–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 2 under

    Florida St 2-1WWL

    1. Nov 10L 72-81vs FloridaDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 164.5
    2. Nov 6W 91-68vs TroyCovered −22.5 · Over 158.5
    3. Nov 2W 112-69vs Florida A&M
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 91.7 and allowing 72.7
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Green BayFlorida St
    Points scored per 100 possessions108.7 107th116.5 32nd
    Points allowed per 100110.9 256th100.2 63rd
    Possessions a game68.7 348th72.4 39th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)53.0% 38th50.7% 167th
    Opponents' shooting52.7% 319th51.1% 226th
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.9% 283rd17.5% 112th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses34.5% 33rd33.8% 69th
    Free throws per shot0.24 272nd0.32 17th

    The widest gap: Florida St's offense (32nd) against Green Bay's defense (256th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Green Bay 32, Florida St 42
    First-half margin
    Florida St by 9.6
    First-half points, both teams
    73.7
    Projected second half
    Green Bay 38, Florida St 46
    Second-half points, both teams
    83.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Green Bay, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 35.0 scored, 34.2 allowed
    Florida St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Green Bay

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Marcus HallF3211.83.61.81.9
    10+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 51%
    Orlando LovejoyG3013.53.42.90.1
    15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 53%
    Ne'quan BrownG2611.14.02.01.6
    10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 55%
    Ahmere CarsonG239.72.72.11.3
    10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59%
    Isaiah SutherlandF185.72.80.51.1
    5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 62%
    Maruan CicicC173.73.20.80.1
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 19%
    Clarence PayiaG155.61.80.70.8
    5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52%
    Mac WreckeG112.41.10.40.3
    5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 28% · 1+ threes 23%

    Florida St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sebastian RancikF3019.45.32.31.9
    20+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 52%
    Anthony Robinson IIG2812.83.73.61.1
    15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 46%
    Kam TaylorG2815.64.52.81.0
    15+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 52%
    Shon AbaevF2812.85.73.21.7
    15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 46%
    Marcis PonderC229.87.00.70.1
    10+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 17%
    Alex SteenF186.05.20.90.0
    5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 23%
    Elise AssuiG164.12.51.00.7
    5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46%
    Cooper SchwiegerF123.41.70.60.4
    5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 30%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 20

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    2. 3 PMprojected 73-77Northwestern vs Virginia Tech, men's: game page
    3. 7:30 PMprojected 73-77Iowa at Xavier, men's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 82-78Georgia at Georgia Tech, men's: game page
    5. 8 PMprojected 79-78Kentucky vs Indiana, men's: game page
    6. 11 PMprojected 80-80Saint Louis at Saint Mary's, men's: game page
    Green Bay next: at West Florida, Tue, Nov 17 · 66%Florida St next: vs Texas A&M-CC, Fri, Nov 13 · 97%Green Bay: schedule and oddsFlorida St: schedule and odds