Florida St 112, Florida A&M 69
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:15 PM ET at Benchmark International Arena. Florida St our rank 47 · 2-1; Florida A&M our rank 363 · 0-4.
Who won Florida St vs Florida A&M?
Final: Florida State 112, Florida A&M 69. Before tip-off the model gave Florida State a 94% chance to win, with a projected margin of 19.4 points for Florida State. Sebastian Rancik scored 25 for Florida St; Jaden Kempson had 27 for Florida A&M.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Sebastian Rancik: Florida St 90%Florida A&M 10%
The white mark is the call with him: Florida St 94%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Florida St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | ||||
| Sebastian Rancik | 3.5 | 90% | −4 | 77–61 |
| Anthony Robinson II | 3.1 | 91% | −3 | 77–61 |
| Shon Abaev | 3.0 | 91% | −3 | 77–61 |
| Kam Taylor | 2.6 | 91% | −3 | 77–60 |
Change is in Florida St's win chance, in points. Scores read Florida St, then Florida A&M. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Florida St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Florida A&M
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Florida St | Florida A&M | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.5 32nd | 92.8 355th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.2 63rd | 117.8 361st |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 167th | 48.9% 293rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 226th | 52.8% 326th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 112th | 19.2% 302nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 69th | 29.5% 306th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 17th | 0.21 358th |
The widest gap: Florida St's offense (32nd) against Florida A&M's defense (361st), of 365 teams.
First half
Florida St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 16.3 points and the total by 16.5.
- At halftime
- Florida St 54, Florida A&M 27
- Projected halftime score
- Florida St 38, Florida A&M 27
- First-half margin
- Florida St by 10.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Florida St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian RancikF | 27 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Kam TaylorG | 26 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Anthony Robinson IIG | 26 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Shon AbaevF | 24 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Marcis PonderC | 20 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper SchwiegerF | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex SteenF | 15 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bass Jr.G | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Martay BarnesG | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Florida A&M
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden KempsonG | 36 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Daisean WillifordF | 33 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Antonio Baker Jr.G | 31 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Chandler DavisG | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ralph Martino Jr.G | 20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Tuscan OnuohaF | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ben NdourF | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel MokwezaC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mihailo StijovicF | 11 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |