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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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Texas A&M-CC at Florida St

Friday, November 13, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Tucker Center. Texas A&M-CC our rank 201 · 2-1; Florida St our rank 47 · 2-1.

Who will win Texas A&M-CC vs Florida St?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Florida State a 97% chance to beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, with a projected score of Florida St 86, Texas A&M-CC 64. The spread is Florida St −22.5, with an over/under of 148.5. The model makes it Florida St by 21.2, 1.3 points toward Texas A&M-CC, and projects 150 total points.

To winFlorida St 97%Texas A&M-CC 3%
Projected score64–86Texas A&M-CC, then Florida St
Margin21.2Florida St · line: Florida St 22.5
Total150.1line: 148.5
First half29–41Florida St ahead 86%
Texas A&M-CC by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Florida St by 50Model: Florida St by 21.2Line: Florida St by 22.5Texas A&M-CC by 10by 10by 30Florida St by 50Model: Florida St by 21.2Line: Florida St by 22.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Florida St
RancikF · 29 min18.95.22.320+ 43%
TaylorG · 28 min15.24.42.815+ 50%
Robinson IIG · 28 min12.53.63.510+ 65%
AbaevF · 28 min12.55.63.210+ 65%
Texas A&M-CC
Michelini-JacksonG · 21 min7.42.71.25+ 68%
Kent Jr.G · 17 min6.51.90.85+ 60%
MukunaF · 21 min6.23.80.55+ 58%
BasilF · 17 min6.24.50.65+ 57%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Sebastian Rancik: Texas A&M-CC 6%Florida St 94%

The white mark is the call with him: Florida St 97%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsFlorida St without himChangeProjected score
Florida St
Sebastian Rancik3.594%−366–84
Anthony Robinson II3.194%−366–84
Shon Abaev3.095%−266–84
Kam Taylor2.695%−266–84
Texas A&M-CC
Daniel Michelini-Jackson0.697%064–86

Change is in Florida St's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas A&M-CC, then Florida St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineFlorida St −22.5148.5
ModelFlorida St −21.2150.1
Gap1.3 toward Texas A&M-CC1.6 higher

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Texas A&M-CC 2-1LWW

    1. Nov 10W 102-58vs Dallas Christian
    2. Nov 6W 67-60at LouisianaCovered +3.5 · Under 129.5
    3. Nov 2L 55-67at Texas St
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 61.7
    Against the spread, this season
    1–0
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    Florida St 2-1WWL

    1. Nov 10L 72-81vs FloridaDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 164.5
    2. Nov 6W 91-68vs TroyCovered −22.5 · Over 158.5
    3. Nov 2W 112-69vs Florida A&M
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 91.7 and allowing 72.7
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Texas A&M-CCFlorida St
    Points scored per 100 possessions100.0 270th116.5 32nd
    Points allowed per 100106.6 141st100.2 63rd
    Possessions a game69.7 292nd72.4 39th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)50.6% 176th50.7% 167th
    Opponents' shooting48.5% 47th51.1% 226th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.5% 321st17.5% 112th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.6% 80th33.8% 69th
    Free throws per shot0.29 60th0.32 17th

    The widest gap: Florida St's defense (63rd) against Texas A&M-CC's offense (270th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Texas A&M-CC 29, Florida St 41
    First-half margin
    Florida St by 11.6
    First-half points, both teams
    70.4
    Projected second half
    Texas A&M-CC 35, Florida St 45
    Second-half points, both teams
    79.7
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Texas A&M-CC, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 30.3 allowed
    Florida St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Texas A&M-CC

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Dan MukunaF216.23.80.50.3
    5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 27%
    Daniel Michelini-JacksonG217.42.71.21.1
    5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 63%
    Lamin FoonC175.73.70.50.1
    5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 47%
    Desmond Kent Jr.G176.51.90.80.5
    5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 38%
    Bin BasilF176.24.50.60.1
    5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 45%
    Bryson WheatfallG173.92.60.90.4
    5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 32%
    Sebastian RobinsonG166.01.40.90.3
    5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 24%
    CJ WorshamF165.62.90.40.2
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 51%

    Florida St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sebastian RancikF2918.95.22.31.9
    20+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 51%
    Anthony Robinson IIG2812.53.63.51.1
    10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 46%
    Kam TaylorG2815.24.42.81.0
    15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 51%
    Shon AbaevF2812.55.63.21.6
    10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 45%
    Marcis PonderC229.66.90.70.1
    10+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 17%
    Alex SteenF185.95.20.90.0
    5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 23%
    Elise AssuiG164.02.51.00.7
    5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46%
    Cooper SchwiegerF123.41.70.60.4
    5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 30%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

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    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    Texas A&M-CC next: at Rice, Tue, Nov 17 · 40%Florida St next: vs Ball State, Tue, Nov 17 · 99%Texas A&M-CC: schedule and oddsFlorida St: schedule and odds