Ball State at Florida St
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Tucker Center. Ball State our rank 269 · 1-2; Florida St our rank 47 · 2-1.
Who will win Ball State vs Florida St?
The model gives Florida State a 99% chance to beat Ball State, with a projected score of Florida St 87, Ball State 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | |||||
| RancikF · 29 min | 18.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 20+ 43% | |
| TaylorG · 28 min | 15.2 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| Robinson IIG · 28 min | 12.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 10+ 65% | |
| AbaevF · 27 min | 12.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 10+ 65% | |
| Ball State | |||||
| BlakeG · 27 min | 10.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 53% | |
| Guy-KingG · 22 min | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 50% | |
| ParkerG · 23 min | 8.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 34% | |
| LewisG · 24 min | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sebastian Rancik: Ball State 3%Florida St 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Florida St 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Florida St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | ||||
| Sebastian Rancik | 3.5 | 97% | −2 | 63–85 |
| Anthony Robinson II | 3.1 | 97% | −2 | 63–85 |
| Shon Abaev | 3.0 | 98% | −1 | 63–85 |
| Kam Taylor | 2.6 | 98% | −1 | 63–86 |
| Ball State | ||||
| Aaron Fine | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 61–87 |
Change is in Florida St's win chance, in points. Scores read Ball State, then Florida St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Ball State 1-2LLW
- Nov 9W 89-64vs Brescia
- Nov 6L 66-69vs Indiana StDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 2L 55-67at GA Southern
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 70.0 and allowing 66.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Florida St 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 72-81vs FloridaDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 164.5
- Nov 6W 91-68vs TroyCovered −22.5 · Over 158.5
- Nov 2W 112-69vs Florida A&M
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 91.7 and allowing 72.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ball State | Florida St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.2 315th | 116.5 32nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.5 185th | 100.2 63rd |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.6% 357th | 50.7% 167th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 92nd | 51.1% 226th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.2% 297th | 17.5% 112th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 172nd | 33.8% 69th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 173rd | 0.32 17th |
The widest gap: Florida St's defense (63rd) against Ball State's offense (315th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Ball State 28, Florida St 42
- First-half margin
- Florida St by 13.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.8
- Projected second half
- Ball State 34, Florida St 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Ball State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 31.7 allowed
- Florida St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Ball State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason JonesF | 31 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Sean BlakeG | 27 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Trey LewisG | 24 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| K'Jei ParkerG | 23 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 47% to play · 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Javion Guy-KingG | 22 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Kai McGrewF | 18 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Joey HartG | 18 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jaden SmithC | 17 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: K'Jei Parker (28 min a game).
Florida St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian RancikF | 29 | 18.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Anthony Robinson IIG | 28 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Kam TaylorG | 28 | 15.2 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Shon AbaevF | 27 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Marcis PonderC | 22 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Alex SteenF | 18 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Elise AssuiG | 16 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Cooper SchwiegerF | 12 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…