Ball State 55, GA Southern 67
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center. Ball State our rank 269 · 1-2; GA Southern our rank 270 · 1-2.
Who won Ball State vs GA Southern?
Final: Georgia Southern 67, Ball State 55. Before tip-off the model gave Georgia Southern a 61% chance to win, with a projected margin of 3.4 points for Georgia Southern. Eltramon Smith scored 24 for GA Southern; Javion Guy-King had 12 for Ball State.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Aaron Fine: Ball State 37%GA Southern 63%
The white mark is the call with him: GA Southern 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | GA Southern without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | ||||
| Aaron Fine | 0.6 | 63% | +2 | 65–69 |
Change is in GA Southern's win chance, in points. Scores read Ball State, then GA Southern. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Ball State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
GA Southern
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ball State | GA Southern | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.2 315th | 100.9 249th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.5 185th | 112.2 294th |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.6% 357th | 48.8% 297th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 92nd | 49.5% 116th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.2% 297th | 18.0% 179th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 172nd | 33.5% 83rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 173rd | 0.27 116th |
The widest gap: Ball State's defense (185th) against GA Southern's offense (249th), of 365 teams.
First half
GA Southern led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 13.1 points and the total by 4.0.
- At halftime
- Ball State 22, GA Southern 37
- Projected halftime score
- Ball State 31, GA Southern 32
- First-half margin
- GA Southern by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Ball State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason JonesF | 32 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Jei ParkerG | 24 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey LewisG | 23 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean BlakeG | 21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Javion Guy-KingG | 21 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron FineG | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaden SmithC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jazz Henderson Jr.G | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Joey HartG | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
GA Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truman Claytor IVF | 33 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Eltramon SmithF | 30 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Dallas GardnerG | 28 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 0 |
| Rashaad WilliamsG | 27 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Jayden WilliamsG | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Elidjah SavaneF | 19 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh DixonG | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole CrissmanF | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Elton JamesF | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |