GA Southern at UCF
Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Addition Financial Arena. GA Southern our rank 270 · 1-2; UCF our rank 73 · 3-0.
Who will win GA Southern vs UCF?
The model gives UCF a 98% chance to beat Georgia Southern, with a projected score of UCF 91, GA Southern 69. The spread is UCF −23.5, with an over/under of 163.5. The model makes it UCF by 21.9, 1.6 points toward GA Southern, and projects 160 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | |||||
| JohnsonG · 30 min | 30.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 30+ 51% | |
| WalkerF · 22 min | 11.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 60% | |
| DeanG · 26 min | 10.4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| PachecoG · 22 min | 9.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| GA Southern | |||||
| GardnerG · 30 min | 13.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 15+ 42% | |
| SmithF · 30 min | 13.1 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 15+ 37% | |
| Claytor IVF · 32 min | 12.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 15+ 36% | |
| DixonG · 20 min | 8.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dior Johnson: GA Southern 5%UCF 95%
The white mark is the call with him: UCF 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UCF without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | ||||
| Dior Johnson | 3.8 | 95% | −3 | 71–89 |
| Arturo Dean | 2.0 | 96% | −2 | 70–90 |
| John Bol | 1.9 | 96% | −2 | 70–90 |
| Riley Kugel | 1.5 | 97% | −1 | 70–90 |
Change is in UCF's win chance, in points. Scores read GA Southern, then UCF. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | UCF −23.5 | 163.5 |
| Model | UCF −21.9 | 160.4 |
| Gap | 1.6 toward GA Southern | 3.1 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
GA Southern 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 91-97vs MercerDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 6L 83-95at Georgia TechCovered +17.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 67-55vs Ball State
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 80.3 and allowing 82.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| GA Southern | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.9 249th | 115.7 47th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.2 294th | 104.6 109th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.8% 297th | 51.2% 132nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 116th | 53.0% 331st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 179th | 15.9% 10th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 83rd | 29.3% 315th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 116th | 0.27 116th |
The widest gap: UCF's offense (47th) against GA Southern's defense (294th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- GA Southern 32, UCF 44
- First-half margin
- UCF by 12.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.3
- Projected second half
- GA Southern 38, UCF 48
- Second-half points, both teams
- 85.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- GA Southern, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 37.3 allowed
- UCF, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
GA Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truman Claytor IVF | 32 | 12.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Eltramon SmithF | 30 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Dallas GardnerG | 30 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jayden WilliamsG | 20 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Josh DixonG | 20 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Elidjah SavaneF | 19 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Jeromy DavisG | 19 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Rashaad WilliamsG | 17 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Rashaad Williams (20 min a game).
UCF
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dior JohnsonG | 30 | 30.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| 30+ pts 51% · 4+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Arturo DeanG | 26 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 58% | |||||
| Carmelo PachecoG | 22 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 34% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Lewis WalkerF | 22 | 11.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Isaiah MaloneF | 21 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| John BolC | 20 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Riley KugelG | 19 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Cayden VaskoG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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