MTSU at GA Southern
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center. MTSU our rank 218 · 2-1; GA Southern our rank 270 · 1-2.
Who will win MTSU vs GA Southern?
The model gives Middle Tennessee a 53% chance to beat Georgia Southern, with a projected score of MTSU 76, GA Southern 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | |||||
| BarnettG · 30 min | 14.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 15+ 44% | |
| CarterG · 34 min | 13.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 15+ 39% | |
| Whitlock Jr.G · 29 min | 11.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| SilerC · 20 min | 7.7 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 31% | |
| GA Southern | |||||
| GardnerG · 32 min | 16.2 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 15+ 56% | |
| SmithF · 33 min | 15.3 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 15+ 51% | |
| Claytor IVF · 35 min | 15.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 15+ 50% | |
| DixonG · 20 min | 9.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jahvin Carter: MTSU 50%GA Southern 50%
The white mark is the call with him: MTSU 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | MTSU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | ||||
| Jahvin Carter | 0.7 | 50% | −3 | 76–76 |
Change is in MTSU's win chance, in points. Scores read MTSU, then GA Southern. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
MTSU 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 73-68vs EvansvilleDidn't cover −9.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 6L 45-89at KansasDidn't cover +28.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 2W 117-73vs Fisk
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 78.3 and allowing 76.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
GA Southern 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 91-97vs MercerDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 6L 83-95at Georgia TechCovered +17.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 67-55vs Ball State
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 80.3 and allowing 82.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| MTSU | GA Southern | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.7 236th | 100.9 249th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.8 192nd | 112.2 294th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 327th | 48.8% 297th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 277th | 49.5% 116th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.1% 291st | 18.0% 179th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 205th | 33.5% 83rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 306th | 0.27 116th |
The widest gap: MTSU's offense (236th) against GA Southern's defense (294th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- MTSU 36, GA Southern 35
- First-half margin
- MTSU by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Projected second half
- MTSU 40, GA Southern 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- MTSU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 29.3 allowed
- GA Southern, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 37.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
MTSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvin CarterG | 34 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Quintero BarnettG | 30 | 14.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Marcus Whitlock Jr.G | 29 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Ofri NavehF | 25 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Kaleb SilerC | 20 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Landyn ColyerG | 19 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jarred HallF | 16 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Eli RiceG | 16 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
GA Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truman Claytor IVF | 35 | 15.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Eltramon SmithF | 33 | 15.3 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Dallas GardnerG | 32 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Jayden WilliamsG | 20 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Josh DixonG | 20 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Elidjah SavaneF | 20 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Jeromy DavisG | 19 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Rashaad WilliamsG | 17 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Rashaad Williams (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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