SE Missouri at MTSU
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Murphy Center. SE Missouri our rank 191 · 2-1; MTSU our rank 218 · 2-1.
Who will win SE Missouri vs MTSU?
The model gives Middle Tennessee a 58% chance to beat Southeast Missouri State, with a projected score of MTSU 74, SE Missouri 72. The spread is MTSU −5.5, with an over/under of 147.5. The model makes it MTSU by 2.3, 3.2 points toward SE Missouri, and projects 146 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | |||||
| BarnettG · 30 min | 13.9 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 15+ 42% | |
| CarterG · 34 min | 13.0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 15+ 37% | |
| Whitlock Jr.G · 29 min | 10.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 54% | |
| SilerC · 20 min | 7.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 5+ 69% | |
| SE Missouri | |||||
| BellG · 29 min | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| Williams Jr.G · 29 min | 12.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 64% | |
| BlockerG · 23 min | 7.8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 10+ 32% | |
| SuttonF · 22 min | 7.4 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jahvin Carter: SE Missouri 44%MTSU 56%
The white mark is the call with him: MTSU 58%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | MTSU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | ||||
| Jahvin Carter | 0.7 | 56% | −2 | 72–74 |
| SE Missouri | ||||
| Marqueas Bell | 0.9 | 61% | +3 | 71–74 |
| Darrion Sutton | 0.9 | 61% | +3 | 71–74 |
Change is in MTSU's win chance, in points. Scores read SE Missouri, then MTSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | MTSU −5.5 | 147.5 |
| Model | MTSU −2.3 | 145.6 |
| Gap | 3.2 toward SE Missouri | 1.9 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SE Missouri 2-1WWL
- Nov 8L 68-78at South CarolinaCovered +17.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 4W 90-65vs Webster
- Nov 2W 86-79vs Lipscomb
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.3 and allowing 74.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
MTSU 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 73-68vs EvansvilleDidn't cover −9.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 6L 45-89at KansasDidn't cover +28.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 2W 117-73vs Fisk
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 78.3 and allowing 76.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SE Missouri | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.9 275th | 101.7 236th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.2 133rd | 108.8 192nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 70.3 238th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.2% 128th | 48.2% 327th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.2% 159th | 51.9% 277th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.7% 137th | 19.1% 291st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.2% 318th | 31.4% 205th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 279th | 0.23 306th |
The widest gap: SE Missouri's defense (133rd) against MTSU's offense (236th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SE Missouri 34, MTSU 35
- First-half margin
- MTSU by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Projected second half
- SE Missouri 38, MTSU 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SE Missouri, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 37.3 allowed
- MTSU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 29.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SE Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqueas BellG | 29 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Fontaine Williams Jr.G | 29 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Landren BlockerG | 23 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Darrion SuttonF | 22 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Clayton JewellF | 20 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Alonzo Clawson-SmithG | 19 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| PJ FarmerG | 18 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Drew CooperF | 16 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
MTSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvin CarterG | 34 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Quintero BarnettG | 30 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Marcus Whitlock Jr.G | 29 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ofri NavehF | 25 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Kaleb SilerC | 20 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Landyn ColyerG | 19 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jarred HallF | 16 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Eli RiceG | 16 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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