SE Missouri at St Thomas
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena. SE Missouri our rank 191 · 2-1; St Thomas our rank 171 · 2-2.
Who will win SE Missouri vs St Thomas?
The model gives St. Thomas a 65% chance to beat Southeast Missouri State, with a projected score of St Thomas 78, SE Missouri 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Thomas | |||||
| TibbitsG · 28 min | 12.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 10+ 62% | |
| FranksG · 26 min | 10.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 53% | |
| LorenzF · 25 min | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| BjerkeF · 25 min | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 10+ 37% | |
| SE Missouri | |||||
| BellG · 29 min | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 15+ 34% | |
| Williams Jr.G · 28 min | 12.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 65% | |
| BlockerG · 22 min | 7.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 10+ 33% | |
| SuttonF · 22 min | 7.6 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kendall Blue: SE Missouri 38%St Thomas 62%
The white mark is the call with him: St Thomas 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Thomas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Thomas | ||||
| Kendall Blue | 0.8 | 62% | −3 | 74–78 |
| Carter Bjerke | 0.5 | 63% | −2 | 74–78 |
| Jeremy Lorenz | 0.5 | 63% | −2 | 74–78 |
| SE Missouri | ||||
| Marqueas Bell | 0.9 | 68% | +3 | 73–78 |
| Darrion Sutton | 0.9 | 68% | +3 | 73–78 |
Change is in St Thomas's win chance, in points. Scores read SE Missouri, then St Thomas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SE Missouri 2-1WWL
- Nov 8L 68-78at South CarolinaCovered +17.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 4W 90-65vs Webster
- Nov 2W 86-79vs Lipscomb
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.3 and allowing 74.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SE Missouri | St Thomas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.9 275th | 106.3 138th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.2 133rd | 110.6 245th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.2% 128th | 51.1% 137th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.2% 159th | 49.0% 69th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.7% 137th | 17.2% 90th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.2% 318th | 27.9% 353rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 279th | 0.31 20th |
The widest gap: St Thomas's defense (245th) against SE Missouri's offense (275th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SE Missouri 34, St Thomas 37
- First-half margin
- St Thomas by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.2
- Projected second half
- SE Missouri 39, St Thomas 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SE Missouri, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 37.3 allowed
- St Thomas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 37.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SE Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqueas BellG | 29 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Fontaine Williams Jr.G | 28 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Landren BlockerG | 22 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Darrion SuttonF | 22 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Clayton JewellF | 20 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Alonzo Clawson-SmithG | 19 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| PJ FarmerG | 18 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Drew CooperF | 16 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden TibbitsG | 28 | 12.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ ast 59% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Tim FranksG | 26 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Carter BjerkeF | 25 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jeremy LorenzF | 25 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jonovan WilkinsonG | 22 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Caden WilkinsF | 17 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Austin HerroG | 16 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Kendall BlueG | 13 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
Missed the last game: Austin Herro (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…