Santa Barbara at Pepperdine
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET at Firestone Fieldhouse. Santa Barbara our rank 109 · 3-0; Pepperdine our rank 174 · 2-2.
Who will win Santa Barbara vs Pepperdine?
The model gives UC Santa Barbara a 63% chance to beat Pepperdine, with a projected score of Santa Barbara 78, Pepperdine 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Barbara | |||||
| MahaneyG · 30 min | 13.0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 15+ 37% | |
| ShawG · 27 min | 12.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| LittleG · 26 min | 10.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 10+ 50% | |
| VartiainenG · 18 min | 9.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 44% | |
| Pepperdine | |||||
| MajstorovicF · 27 min | 15.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| WilliamsonG · 28 min | 12.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 15+ 34% | |
| HaywoodG · 27 min | 11.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| ConstanzaF · 20 min | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Miro Little: Santa Barbara 57%Pepperdine 43%
The white mark is the call with him: Santa Barbara 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Santa Barbara without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Barbara | ||||
| Miro Little | 1.7 | 57% | −6 | 77–75 |
| CJ Shaw | 1.3 | 59% | −4 | 77–75 |
| Marvin McGhee IV | 1.1 | 59% | −4 | 77–74 |
| Aidan Mahaney | 1.0 | 60% | −3 | 77–74 |
| Pepperdine | ||||
| Petar Majstorovic | 1.0 | 66% | +3 | 78–73 |
| Evan Haywood | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 78–74 |
| Jahari Williamson | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 78–74 |
| Anthony Robinson | 0.5 | 65% | +2 | 78–74 |
Change is in Santa Barbara's win chance, in points. Scores read Santa Barbara, then Pepperdine. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Santa Barbara 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 76-63vs NevadaCovered −1.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 7W 90-67vs OaklandCovered −13.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2W 85-55vs San Francisco State
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.7 and allowing 61.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Pepperdine 2-2LWWL
- Nov 11L 77-85at Sam HoustonDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 7W 116-43vs Bethesda
- Nov 5W 106-66vs La Sierra
- Nov 2L 85-86at Cornell
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 96.0 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Santa Barbara | Pepperdine | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.9 103rd | 105.2 159th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.8 114th | 109.9 224th |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 71.7 87th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.7% 95th | 52.3% 67th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 224th | 50.5% 184th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 102nd | 17.0% 66th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 240th | 32.6% 132nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 94th | 0.28 102nd |
The widest gap: Santa Barbara's offense (103rd) against Pepperdine's defense (224th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Santa Barbara 37, Pepperdine 35
- First-half margin
- Santa Barbara by 2.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Projected second half
- Santa Barbara 41, Pepperdine 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Santa Barbara, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 25.7 allowed
- Pepperdine, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 44.0 scored, 33.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Santa Barbara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan MahaneyG | 30 | 13.0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| CJ ShawG | 27 | 12.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Miro LittleG | 26 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 41% · 4+ ast 59% | |||||
| Marvin McGhee IVG | 22 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Eric DibamiC | 22 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| RJ SmithG | 21 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Viljami VartiainenG | 18 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Antonio CholF | 13 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Pepperdine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahari WilliamsonG | 28 | 12.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Petar MajstorovicF | 27 | 15.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Evan HaywoodG | 27 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ threes 47% | |||||
| Oliver KandenF | 25 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Anthony RobinsonF | 21 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 46% | |||||
| Alex ConstanzaF | 20 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Anto BalianG | 18 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Will McClendonG | 18 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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