Pepperdine at Oregon
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Matthew Knight Arena. Pepperdine our rank 174 · 2-2; Oregon our rank 46 · 3-0.
Who will win Pepperdine vs Oregon?
The model gives Oregon a 95% chance to beat Pepperdine, with a projected score of Oregon 88, Pepperdine 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | |||||
| PayneG · 24 min | 13.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 15+ 37% | |
| Riley IVG · 26 min | 12.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| EwinC · 21 min | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 10+ 53% | |
| MeadowF · 21 min | 10.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 50% | |
| Pepperdine | |||||
| MajstorovicF · 26 min | 13.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 15+ 42% | |
| WilliamsonG · 27 min | 11.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 58% | |
| HaywoodG · 26 min | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 50% | |
| ConstanzaF · 20 min | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Malique Ewin: Pepperdine 8%Oregon 92%
The white mark is the call with him: Oregon 95%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oregon without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | ||||
| Malique Ewin | 2.9 | 92% | −3 | 70–86 |
| Dwayne Aristode | 2.4 | 92% | −3 | 70–86 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen | 2.0 | 93% | −2 | 70–87 |
| Andrew Meadow | 2.0 | 93% | −2 | 70–87 |
| Pepperdine | ||||
| Petar Majstorovic | 1.0 | 96% | +1 | 68–88 |
| Evan Haywood | 0.6 | 96% | +1 | 69–88 |
| Jahari Williamson | 0.6 | 96% | +1 | 69–88 |
| Anthony Robinson | 0.5 | 95% | 0 | 69–88 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Pepperdine, then Oregon. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Pepperdine 2-2LWWL
- Nov 11L 77-85at Sam HoustonDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 7W 116-43vs Bethesda
- Nov 5W 106-66vs La Sierra
- Nov 2L 85-86at Cornell
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 96.0 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Oregon 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 100-66vs Miss Valley StCovered −33.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6W 98-71vs E WashingtonCovered −16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 2W 87-69vs Montana
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.0 and allowing 68.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pepperdine | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.2 159th | 117.3 28th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 224th | 101.0 72nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 70.1 261st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 67th | 56.2% 2nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.5% 184th | 51.3% 243rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 66th | 17.1% 76th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 132nd | 32.1% 155th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 102nd | 0.21 357th |
The widest gap: Oregon's offense (28th) against Pepperdine's defense (224th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pepperdine 32, Oregon 42
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 10.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Projected second half
- Pepperdine 37, Oregon 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pepperdine, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 44.0 scored, 33.5 allowed
- Oregon, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 32.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pepperdine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahari WilliamsonG | 27 | 11.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Petar MajstorovicF | 26 | 13.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Evan HaywoodG | 26 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Oliver KandenF | 24 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Anthony RobinsonF | 21 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 56% | |||||
| Alex ConstanzaF | 20 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Will McClendonG | 18 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Anto BalianG | 18 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Riley IVG | 26 | 12.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 23% to play · 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Fred PayneG | 24 | 13.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Malique EwinC | 21 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Andrew MeadowF | 21 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jasper JohnsonG | 20 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Taylor Bol BowenF | 19 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Wei LinG | 19 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Dwayne AristodeF | 18 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tyrone Riley IV (33 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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