Who won Montana vs Oregon?
Final: Oregon 87, Montana 69. Before tip-off the model gave Oregon a 93% chance to win, with a projected margin of 18.2 points for Oregon. Tyrone Riley IV scored 17 for Oregon; Jordan Clark had 19 for Montana.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Malique Ewin: Montana 11%Oregon 89%
The white mark is the call with him: Oregon 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oregon without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon | ||||
| Malique Ewin | 2.9 | 89% | −4 | 61–76 |
| Dwayne Aristode | 2.4 | 90% | −3 | 60–76 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen | 2.0 | 91% | −2 | 60–76 |
| Andrew Meadow | 2.0 | 91% | −2 | 60–76 |
 Montana | ||||
| Tyler Thompson | 0.8 | 94% | +1 | 59–78 |
| Amari Jedkins | 0.7 | 94% | +1 | 59–78 |
| Jalen Brown | 0.6 | 94% | +1 | 59–78 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana, then Oregon. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Montana
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Oregon
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Montana | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.1 220th | 117.3 28th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.0 150th | 101.0 72nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 70.1 261st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 222nd | 56.2% 2nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 171st | 51.3% 243rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 199th | 17.1% 76th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 272nd | 32.1% 155th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 105th | 0.21 357th |
The widest gap: Oregon's defense (72nd) against Montana's offense (220th), of 365 teams.
First half
Oregon led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.0 points and the total by 7.0.
- At halftime
- Montana 31, Oregon 40
- Projected halftime score
- Montana 27, Oregon 37
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 10.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Montana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ClarkG | 38 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Tyler ThompsonG | 38 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Jalen BrownG | 30 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Connor DickG | 26 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Clayton MpianaF | 22 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Semaj CarterG | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| LoLo RudolphG | 13 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Josiah SandersF | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah BendingerG | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Riley IVG | 33 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Fred PayneG | 32 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew MeadowF | 27 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Malique EwinC | 24 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor Bol BowenF | 21 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Wei LinG | 18 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Sean StewartF | 13 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jasper JohnsonG | 12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Tajh ArizaF | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |