Montana at North Dakota
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Betty Engelstad Sioux Center. Montana our rank 177 · 1-2; North Dakota our rank 258 · 1-2.
Who will win Montana vs North Dakota?
The model gives Montana a 56% chance to beat North Dakota, with a projected score of Montana 78, North Dakota 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | |||||
| BrownG · 28 min | 13.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 15+ 39% | |
| ClarkG · 26 min | 10.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| CarterG · 18 min | 10.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 49% | |
| ThompsonG · 31 min | 9.0 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 10+ 40% | |
| North Dakota | |||||
| HincapieG · 28 min | 15.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 15+ 53% | |
| WinkelG · 25 min | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 10+ 61% | |
| EvansonG · 29 min | 9.3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| KraftG · 28 min | 8.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tyler Thompson: Montana 53%North Dakota 47%
The white mark is the call with him: Montana 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Montana without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | ||||
| Tyler Thompson | 0.8 | 53% | −3 | 78–77 |
| Amari Jedkins | 0.7 | 54% | −2 | 78–77 |
| Jalen Brown | 0.6 | 54% | −2 | 78–77 |
Change is in Montana's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana, then North Dakota. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Montana 1-2LWL
- Nov 10L 58-63at San FranciscoCovered +11.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 4W 105-40vs Salish Kootenai
- Nov 2L 69-87at Oregon
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.3 and allowing 63.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Montana | North Dakota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.1 220th | 105.3 157th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.0 150th | 115.7 344th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 222nd | 49.4% 265th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 171st | 54.4% 355th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 199th | 16.8% 49th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 272nd | 34.9% 24th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 105th | 0.30 42nd |
The widest gap: Montana's offense (220th) against North Dakota's defense (344th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Montana 37, North Dakota 36
- First-half margin
- Montana by 0.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.8
- Projected second half
- Montana 42, North Dakota 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Montana, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.3 allowed
- North Dakota, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 41.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Montana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ThompsonG | 31 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jalen BrownG | 28 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jordan ClarkG | 26 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| LoLo RudolphG | 20 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Clayton MpianaF | 18 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Semaj CarterG | 18 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Connor DickG | 17 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Amari JedkinsF | 16 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
North Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter EvansonG | 29 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Samuel HincapieG | 28 | 15.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Zach KraftG | 28 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Luke WinkelG | 25 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Josh JonesC | 19 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Zack ParksG | 18 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jayden MooreG | 16 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Andrija RadojevicF | 13 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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