Who will win Montana vs Kansas St?
The model gives Kansas State a 83% chance to beat Montana, with a projected score of Kansas St 82, Montana 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas St | |||||
| RechsteinerG · 31 min | 19.2 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 20+ 45% | |
| AbrahamF · 31 min | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| SchuttG · 30 min | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| GilhoolF · 17 min | 7.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 67% | |
 Montana | |||||
| BrownG · 27 min | 11.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 61% | |
| ClarkG · 25 min | 9.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 43% | |
| CarterG · 18 min | 9.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| ThompsonG · 30 min | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Brandon Rechsteiner: Montana 22%Kansas St 78%
The white mark is the call with him: Kansas St 83%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kansas St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas St | ||||
| Brandon Rechsteiner | 2.2 | 78% | −5 | 72–81 |
| Jaden Schutt | 1.4 | 80% | −3 | 71–81 |
| Isaiah Abraham | 1.1 | 81% | −2 | 71–81 |
| Timo Malovec | 1.0 | 81% | −2 | 71–81 |
| Montana | ||||
| Tyler Thompson | 0.8 | 85% | +2 | 70–82 |
| Amari Jedkins | 0.7 | 85% | +2 | 70–82 |
| Jalen Brown | 0.6 | 85% | +2 | 70–82 |
Change is in Kansas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana, then Kansas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Montana 1-2LWL
- Nov 10L 58-63at San FranciscoCovered +11.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 4W 105-40vs Salish Kootenai
- Nov 2L 69-87at Oregon
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.3 and allowing 63.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Kansas St 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 89-82vs CreightonCovered +3.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 6W 95-78vs CSU NorthridgeCovered −10.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 3L 66-68vs S Dakota St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 76.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Montana | Kansas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.1 220th | 107.0 125th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.0 150th | 102.5 91st |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 222nd | 53.5% 22nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 171st | 51.9% 277th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 199th | 20.6% 355th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 272nd | 29.0% 325th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 105th | 0.26 199th |
The widest gap: Kansas St's defense (91st) against Montana's offense (220th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Montana 33, Kansas St 39
- First-half margin
- Kansas St by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Projected second half
- Montana 38, Kansas St 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Montana, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.3 allowed
- Kansas St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Montana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ThompsonG | 30 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jalen BrownG | 27 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jordan ClarkG | 25 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| LoLo RudolphG | 20 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Clayton MpianaF | 19 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Semaj CarterG | 18 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Connor DickG | 17 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Amari JedkinsF | 16 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Kansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon RechsteinerG | 31 | 19.2 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| 20+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ threes 53% | |||||
| Isaiah AbrahamF | 31 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Jaden SchuttG | 30 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 60% | |||||
| Brock ViceF | 18 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Montana WheelerG | 17 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 60% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Matt GilhoolF | 17 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Dez LindsayF | 16 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Timo MalovecF | 15 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 79% to play · 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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