C Arkansas at Oklahoma St
Monday, November 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Gallagher-Iba Arena. C Arkansas our rank 162 · 2-1; Oklahoma St our rank 37 · 2-1.
Who will win C Arkansas vs Oklahoma St?
The model gives Oklahoma State a 97% chance to beat Central Arkansas, with a projected score of Oklahoma St 89, C Arkansas 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma St | |||||
| BurksF · 22 min | 11.5 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| HalaifonuaC · 21 min | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 55% | |
| FelesiG · 26 min | 10.4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 10+ 51% | |
| WalkerG · 24 min | 9.7 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| C Arkansas | |||||
| RobinsonG · 20 min | 11.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| MooreG · 22 min | 8.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 10+ 34% | |
| BeauchampG · 21 min | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 59% | |
| McCormickG · 22 min | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 5+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jordan Burks: C Arkansas 5%Oklahoma St 95%
The white mark is the call with him: Oklahoma St 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oklahoma St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma St | ||||
| Jordan Burks | 3.0 | 95% | −2 | 69–87 |
| Kashie Natt | 3.0 | 95% | −2 | 69–88 |
| Julius Halaifonua | 2.5 | 95% | −2 | 69–88 |
| Kanye Clary | 2.1 | 95% | −2 | 69–88 |
| C Arkansas | ||||
| Ty Robinson | 1.4 | 98% | +1 | 67–90 |
| Tucker Anderson | 0.9 | 97% | 0 | 67–89 |
| Luke Moore | 0.5 | 97% | 0 | 67–89 |
Change is in Oklahoma St's win chance, in points. Scores read C Arkansas, then Oklahoma St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
C Arkansas 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 127-54vs Ecclesia
- Nov 6L 60-92at Ole MissDidn't cover +17.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 85-55vs Oral Roberts
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.7 and allowing 67.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Oklahoma St 2-1WWL
- Nov 12L 69-88at Texas A&MDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 179.5
- Nov 6W 118-68vs QueensCovered −18.5 · Over 178.5
- Nov 2W 91-60vs Incarnate Word
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 72.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| C Arkansas | Oklahoma St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.2 177th | 114.9 54th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.0 172nd | 97.5 36th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 144th | 51.2% 133rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.4% 106th | 50.6% 191st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 194th | 17.2% 86th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 295th | 35.8% 12th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 186th | 0.28 101st |
The widest gap: Oklahoma St's defense (36th) against C Arkansas's offense (177th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- C Arkansas 31, Oklahoma St 43
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma St by 11.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Projected second half
- C Arkansas 37, Oklahoma St 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- C Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
- Oklahoma St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 32.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
C Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke MooreG | 22 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Cole McCormickG | 22 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Harry BeauchampG | 21 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ty RobinsonG | 20 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Simm-Marten SaadiF | 19 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Tucker AndersonF | 18 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Rylie MarshallG | 16 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Malchiah MarableF | 15 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
Missed the last game: Malchiah Marable (15 min a game).
Oklahoma St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony FelesiG | 26 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jacob WalkerG | 24 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 55% | |||||
| Jordan BurksF | 22 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Kashie NattG | 22 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Julius HalaifonuaC | 21 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Kanye ClaryG | 20 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Andrija GrbovicF | 17 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Latrell AllmondF | 15 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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