Jacksonville at Georgia
Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Stegeman Coliseum. Jacksonville our rank 205 · 2-1; Georgia our rank 57 · 3-0.
Who will win Jacksonville vs Georgia?
The model gives Georgia a 96% chance to beat Jacksonville, with a projected score of Georgia 86, Jacksonville 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | |||||
| CainG · 30 min | 14.5 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 15+ 46% | |
| CatchingsF · 26 min | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 15+ 35% | |
| MillenderG · 28 min | 12.0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 10+ 62% | |
| StaggF · 22 min | 9.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| Jacksonville | |||||
| Phillips Jr.G · 27 min | 13.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 15+ 42% | |
| WoodG · 29 min | 13.8 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 15+ 41% | |
| WilliamsG · 25 min | 8.5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| MorrowF · 21 min | 7.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Blue Cain: Jacksonville 7%Georgia 93%
The white mark is the call with him: Georgia 96%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Georgia without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | ||||
| Blue Cain | 3.5 | 93% | −3 | 68–85 |
| Marcus Millender | 2.7 | 94% | −2 | 68–85 |
| Kanon Catchings | 2.5 | 94% | −2 | 68–85 |
| James Scott | 2.4 | 94% | −2 | 67–85 |
| Jacksonville | ||||
| Nehemiah Turner | 0.5 | 96% | 0 | 66–87 |
Change is in Georgia's win chance, in points. Scores read Jacksonville, then Georgia. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Jacksonville 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 79-61vs Kansas CityCovered −3.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 5L 57-88at FloridaCovered +36.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 105-61vs Trinity College of Jacksonville
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.3 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Georgia 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 80-72vs FGCUDidn't cover −22.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 6W 91-77vs PresbyterianDidn't cover −24.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 78-62vs NC Central
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 70.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Jacksonville | Georgia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.3 212th | 116.3 33rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.0 195th | 102.0 86th |
| Possessions a game | 69.0 333rd | 72.2 55th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.2% 274th | 49.3% 267th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.9% 65th | 52.4% 305th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.3% 18th | 15.7% 8th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 285th | 33.3% 93rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 107th | 0.26 160th |
The widest gap: Georgia's offense (33rd) against Jacksonville's defense (195th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Jacksonville 30, Georgia 41
- First-half margin
- Georgia by 11.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.6
- Projected second half
- Jacksonville 36, Georgia 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Jacksonville, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Georgia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Jacksonville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden WoodG | 29 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jamie Phillips Jr.G | 27 | 13.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Caleb WilliamsG | 25 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| James MorrowF | 21 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Evan SterckG | 20 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Nehemiah TurnerF | 17 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Rex StirlingF | 15 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Sam MbingazoC | 15 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
Georgia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue CainG | 30 | 14.5 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Marcus MillenderG | 28 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| James ScottF | 26 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Kanon CatchingsF | 26 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kareem StaggF | 22 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Freddie Dilione VG | 20 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Brady DunlapF | 15 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Donovan Williams Jr.G | 14 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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