Little Rock at Jacksonville
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Swisher Gymnasium. Little Rock our rank 272 · 0-3; Jacksonville our rank 205 · 2-1.
Who will win Little Rock vs Jacksonville?
The model gives Jacksonville a 71% chance to beat Little Rock, with a projected score of Jacksonville 76, Little Rock 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | |||||
| WoodG · 30 min | 16.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 15+ 56% | |
| Phillips Jr.G · 28 min | 16.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 15+ 56% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 9.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| MorrowF · 21 min | 8.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| Little Rock | |||||
| KingG · 30 min | 15.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 15+ 53% | |
| HubbardF · 23 min | 13.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 15+ 38% | |
| ClarkG · 26 min | 9.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 10+ 41% | |
| LynG · 22 min | 8.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nehemiah Turner: Little Rock 31%Jacksonville 69%
The white mark is the call with him: Jacksonville 71%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Jacksonville without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | ||||
| Nehemiah Turner | 0.5 | 69% | −2 | 70–76 |
| Little Rock | ||||
| Bradyn Hubbard | 0.5 | 72% | +1 | 69–76 |
Change is in Jacksonville's win chance, in points. Scores read Little Rock, then Jacksonville. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Little Rock 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 69-94at New MexicoDidn't cover +23.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 7L 79-83vs SE LouisianaDidn't cover −10.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 2L 72-82at VCU
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 73.3 and allowing 86.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Jacksonville 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 79-61vs Kansas CityCovered −3.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 5L 57-88at FloridaCovered +36.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 105-61vs Trinity College of Jacksonville
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.3 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Little Rock | Jacksonville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 244th | 102.3 212th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.7 302nd | 109.0 195th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 69.0 333rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.6% 176th | 49.2% 274th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 313th | 48.9% 65th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 280th | 16.3% 18th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 103rd | 30.0% 285th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 100th | 0.27 107th |
The widest gap: Jacksonville's offense (212th) against Little Rock's defense (302nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Little Rock 32, Jacksonville 36
- First-half margin
- Jacksonville by 3.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Projected second half
- Little Rock 37, Jacksonville 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Little Rock, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 43.3 allowed
- Jacksonville, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Little Rock
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jah'Likai KingG | 30 | 15.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Aaron ClarkG | 26 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Bradyn HubbardF | 23 | 13.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Papa Amadou KanteF | 22 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Jalen LynG | 22 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Taj WaltersG | 22 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Cameron BrownG | 19 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Tyrese LaceyG | 17 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
Jacksonville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden WoodG | 30 | 16.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jamie Phillips Jr.G | 28 | 16.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Caleb WilliamsG | 26 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| James MorrowF | 21 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Evan SterckG | 20 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Nehemiah TurnerF | 17 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Rex StirlingF | 15 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Sam MbingazoC | 14 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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