Little Rock 72, VCU 82
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Siegel Center. Little Rock our rank 272 · 0-3; VCU our rank 58 · 2-1.
Who won Little Rock vs VCU?
Final: VCU 82, Little Rock 72. Before tip-off the model gave VCU a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 28.1 points for VCU. Torey Alston scored 17 for VCU; Jah'Likai King had 27 for Little Rock.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Lazar Djokovic: Little Rock 2%VCU 98%
The white mark is the call with him: VCU 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | VCU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | ||||
| Lazar Djokovic | 3.1 | 98% | −1 | 56–81 |
| Nyk Lewis | 2.8 | 98% | −1 | 55–81 |
| Torey Alston | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 55–81 |
| Blake Harper | 2.1 | 98% | −1 | 55–81 |
| Little Rock | ||||
| Bradyn Hubbard | 0.5 | 99% | 0 | 54–82 |
Change is in VCU's win chance, in points. Scores read Little Rock, then VCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Little Rock
No games yet this season: this is its first.
VCU
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Little Rock | VCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 244th | 114.3 57th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.7 302nd | 100.1 61st |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.6% 176th | 50.5% 181st |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 313th | 49.3% 98th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 280th | 18.1% 196th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 103rd | 32.6% 126th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 100th | 0.34 3rd |
The widest gap: VCU's offense (57th) against Little Rock's defense (302nd), of 365 teams.
First half
VCU led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 11.4 points and the total by 6.2.
- At halftime
- Little Rock 33, VCU 37
- Projected halftime score
- Little Rock 24, VCU 40
- First-half margin
- VCU by 15.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Little Rock
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron ClarkG | 33 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Papa Amadou KanteF | 29 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Jah'Likai KingG | 25 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Tyrese LaceyG | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Bradyn HubbardF | 23 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron BrownG | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Taj WaltersG | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen LynG | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamai FeltF | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
VCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyk LewisG | 37 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Lazar DjokovicF | 35 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Torey AlstonF | 31 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Blake HarperG | 30 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Ahmad NowellG | 22 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon JenningsG | 14 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael BelleF | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrell WardG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammy JacksonG | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |